Blog #7: Interview with Dr. Colussi Insights

Hello Readers!

Since my last blog, I conducted an interview with Dr. Joana Colussi, an agricultural economics professor at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, where we spoke of the current expansive tariff situation and its impact on U.S. agriculture.

In that interview, I was provided by Dr. Colussi with important insights into the international agricultural environment. For example, in 2025, Brazil plans on shipping 105-110 million tons of soybeans for export and it is further anticipated that China will import 60-70% of the entire Brazilian export tonnage. Brazilian exports would be the highest in Brazil’s history, showing an increase of 10% from 2024 exports.

Considering the imposition of recent retaliatory tariffs of 125% by China on U.S. agricultural products, in April 2025, Dr. Colussi explained that China will significantly reduce their consumption of U.S. Soybeans, which in the recent past, have approximated 20-25 million tons from the United States per annum. We see that happening in actuality in the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service report, especially that of May 7th, where we would reduce the 68,000 bushels from more than 200,000 bushels the week before.

Also, Dr Colussi reports that China which traditionally took between 25-30% of U.S. corn exports, will likely also increase their percentage of Brazilian corn consumption in 2025, and reduce their reliance on American corn products as much as possible. So far, the tariffs and associated retaliatory tariffs are working against American agricultural growers, and portend, if continued, to wipe out many small and medium sized farmers, who are dependent on crop exports, in some cases, of more than 50% of their total sales.

Citations:

1. (United States Department of Agriculture. “USDA to Gather Final 2020 Crop Production and Grain Stocks Data.” National Agricultural Statistics Service, January 22, 2021. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/archive/2021/01-22-2021.php)
2. United States International Trade Commission (USITC). 2022. The Economic Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture. Washington, DC: USITC. https://www.usitc.gov/publications/
3. Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2022. Retaliatory Tariffs and U.S. Agriculture: Overview and Analysis. Washington, DC: Library of Congress. https://crsreports.congress.gov/
4. Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). 2023. 2023 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers. Washington, DC: Executive Office of the President. https://ustr.gov/.
5. Smith, John, and Rebecca Turner. 2021. “The Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Farm Exports: Analyzing Small Farm Vulnerabilities.” Journal of Agricultural Economics 72 (4): 215-232. https://doi.org/10.1111/jae.12345.
6. National Farmers Union (NFU). 2023. Policy & Advocacy Report: Tariffs and Small Farms. Washington, DC: NFU. https://nfu.org/.
7. American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). 2023. Farm Economy Outlook: The Effects of Tariffs on American Agriculture. Washington, DC: AFBF. https://www.fb.org/.
8. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). 2023. Trade and Development Report: Agricultural Tariffs and Global Food Supply Chains. Geneva: UNCTAD. https://unctad.org/.
9. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2021. “The Economic Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture.” Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=102979.
10. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2023. “U.S. Agricultural Trade.” Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/international-markets-us-trade/us-agricultural-trade/.
11. Tax Foundation. 2021. “How Tariffs and the Trade War Hurt U.S. Agriculture.” https://taxfoundation.org/blog/tariffs-trade-war-agriculture-food-prices/.
12. Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2018. “Profiles and Effects of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Exports.” https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/r/r45448.
13. United States Department of State. n.d. “Agricultural Trade.” https://www.state.gov/agricultural-trade/.
14. Wharton Global Youth Program. 2018. “How the Trade War with China Is Hurting U.S. Farmers.” https://globalyouth.wharton.upenn.edu/articles/world-economy/how-the-trade-war-with-china-is-hurting-u-s-farmers/.
15. American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). 2024. “Agricultural Exports Benefit from the Farm Bill.” Market Intel. https://www.fb.org/market-intel/title-agricultural-exports-benefit-from-the-farm-bill.
16. Choices Magazine. 2019. “Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on Farm Income and Government Programs.” https://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/the-economic-impacts-of-trade-retaliation-on-us-agriculture-a-one-year-review/impacts-of-retaliatory-tariffs-on-farm-income-and-government-programs.
17. Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2021. “U.S. Agricultural Export Programs: Background and Issues.” https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46760.
18. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2022. “Retaliatory Tariffs Reduced U.S. States’ Exports of Agricultural Commodities.” Amber Waves. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2022/march/retaliatory-tariffs-reduced-u-s-states-exports-of-agricultural-commodities.