Modeling and Predicting Ocean Levels in the Bay Area
Advisor: Ms. Ilona Covert
Internship Location: India (Cisco)
Onsite Mentor: Ramu Rangineni Chenchaiah
Global warming poses an increasing threat, reaching an irreversible stage with our current methods and awareness levels. A notable impact is the rise in ocean levels due to the melting of glacial caps and the thermal expansion of seawater. This project aims to underscore the significant effect of rising ocean levels on our coastal community, recognizing its importance for both our local environment and the planet's future. As the next generation, it is our duty to take action and strive to improve our situation for a sustainable existence. The project will raise awareness through visual representations of 3D models in Unreal Engine, depicting current and future tide levels of the Bay Area using AI. Collaborating with an engineering manager at Cisco and under the guidance of my environmental science teacher at BASIS Independent Fremont, I will measure the impact of ocean levels on nearby communities in the Candlestick Point State Recreation Area, utilizing both physical and digital methods. Furthermore, I plan to gain insights from PG&E regarding the measures they are implementing to counteract these changes. The objective is to inform the public about the detrimental effects of rising ocean levels on our society, infrastructure, and ecosystems.
Project Blog
Week 0: Introduction
Hi my name is Krish and this is my first blog for my senior project. Every year as a kid, I’d visit my favorite viewing spots for tidepools at Monterey. The various life present in such shallow bodies of water so close to me was intriguing, but I slowly noticed the decline of really interesting but important organisms, such as starfish, barnacles, and mussels. The water during tides would be creeping closer to the shore, approaching further inland and affecting various features of my most memorable locations. Many beach areas would be closed off because of the higher level tides and the interesting sights I could see as a kid were no longer present.
Global warming poses an increasing threat, reaching an irreversible stage with our current methods and awareness levels.
The purpose of this project is to highlight and emphasize the major impact rising ocean levels will have on our community, as we live in a very coastal region, but also because it will impact our and the planet's future. As the next generation, it is our duty to alleviate or make an effort to better our situation. The persisting changes in the physical and biological functions and systems in many areas of the world can be attributed to regional changes in climate. These issues, such as the, “melting of glaciers, thawing of permafrost, changes in rainfall frequency/intensity, shifts in growing seasons, early flowering of trees and emergence of insects, and shifts in the distribution ranges of plants and animals,” are all responses to changes in climatic conditions. Rising sea levels, especially near coastal regions like San Francisco, Central and Southern california, would be detrimental to society and more specifically us.
I have always been interested in global warming, as it has become a heated topic. Featured in various debates, political decisions, and even our classrooms, the phenomenon is something that will impact all of us. Regardless of our social status, culture, or race, it is something we must all work towards solving or at least reducing, so we still have something to look forward to in our futures.
I wanted to counteract these issues, so I want to devote my time to report my findings through this project. At the center of it, many of us go through our lives without ever thinking about the harmful effects of our consumption, whether it be certain foods, fuel, or materials like plastic. The average middle income household will not suffer immediate effects from the scenario listed in the proposal, but those at the lower end and bottom will. Only by bringing attention to this issue and its effects on everyone will we be able to enact proper change and steps to hopefully solve this dilemma.
The carbon neutral goal is one of the solutions that may help in bettering our situation, but the sooner we do this, the sooner we may be able to avoid the devastating effects already taking place. Increased intensity of surges, flooding, and major damage to coastal areas will become even more rampant than they are now.
Along with my project of a virtual model and paper predicting rising ocean change in San Francisco, I will also be meeting with an agent from PG&E sometime in the future to gain further inquiries on future dilemmas and conduct a survey.
This week I will meet with Mrs. Covert, my internal advisor, on Tuesday, February 13, in order to further gain instructions and continue researching my project through videos and data articles on how global warming has changed from the pre-industrial area to our present. Stay tuned for any updates.
Week 1
Hello everyone and welcome to week 2 of my project. This week I have been practicing and researching upon how to better integrate external sourcing and images with a photogrammetry software: Meshroom. This program allows me to create 3D scanned models by dragging a select group of images into the image tab. Using this old base editor, I experimented with texturing, Meshing, Depth, imagine/feature matching, and exploring the whole interface.
In the viewport, I used various images of a random wall in my house to interact with the various angles and perspectives. Here, I encountered a problem because the software could not recognize certain lighting or angles, and I had to retake the photo with better focus. To counteract this issue and avoid future problems, I downloaded another free software and alternative to photoshop: Adobe Lightroom. I have experience using this software to edit photos and videos, and it allowed me to brighten up the images so they could be processed by Meshroom. The image viewer allowed me to process the photos of my wall into the 3D viewer and loaded the model successfully. The result was a conglomerate of unfinished dots, but I was able to process it better using various sliders and other rendering tools located in the settings.
Next, I utilized Unreal Engine in order to export the 3D image from Meshroom, so I could interact better with the model of just my wall. Using the Movie Render Queue in Unreal Engine, I made a short video or sequence of moving the figure. This will be extremely useful when making a short animation depicting rising ocean levels. I was able to import a map as well, which displays a background that I can place my 3D imported models upon. The map is essential as it will be the future background when I arrive at the research site, and I am also able to use other software like Google Maps to create a more realistic experience. The reason I chose Unreal Engine was that it is easily available, free, and produces high quality output. I am certain that using this software is essential to producing a better 3D generated model about rising ocean levels in the San Francisco Area.
In addition to learning how to better use these software, I have begun drafting notes from some of the articles about rising ocean levels and the danger of global warming. Currently the introductory part of my paper will start with an exposition of a recent bill, CA SB272, introduced by the Senate in order to mitigate and prepare for any adverse environmental effects for coastal cities like San Francisco. This will then lead into my main topic about global warming and rising ocean levels on the effects of our planet but also my home in the Bay Area. My project also emphasizes ocean levels, but studying upon greenhouse gas emissions allowed me to further grasp the severity of global warming and its effect on our ocean temperatures and climate patterns. Though I am still in the drafting stage of taking notes and acquiring information, I am looking for new ways to use this data along with these interesting softwares to generate awareness. I have created a youtube channel as well where I will be uploading my final video once it is complete, but I may also use it to document certain stages of my project. This may be helpful to others who may want to also utilize 3D imaging and rendering to create viable models for virtually anything.This draft of my paper and analysis of articles was supposed to start in future weeks, but I realized I need enough time to properly produce an extensive research paper.
Next week, I will be ready to venture to the site in order to retrieve my data and acquire images and a video from drone footage. Thank you for reading!
Week 2: Taking Off
Hi guys, welcome back to my blog for the second week of my project. This week should be pretty jam packed with activities and actual field work for me to conduct. I will be actually going onto the site at Candlestick Point State Recreation Area in San Francisco later this week in order to retrieve footage and take measurements with my drone’s camera. The drone footage will contain an aerial view of the entire park but also have separate viewings of this small part of the Pacific Ocean. I plan to use these images and recordings as 3D renders in Meshroom to create a sort of terrain or map from the software to import into Unreal Engine, but these will all be done next week with the aid and supervision of my external advisor.
This week will focus more so on creating the paper aspect, but I have begun by watching a few tutorials and videos on how to safely assemble, use, and record with my Sky Viper Scout Video drone. By carefully observing the online tutorials and following along, I was able to get my drone to be fully operational and ready for field use. I first tested the drone in my own backyard, so I could acquire a feel for it and be more comfortable with the controls. Using this drone was exceptionally enjoyable, as it features smooth movement and a relatively speedy takeoff and flight. A slight problem did occur when I almost lost control, and it just barely missed hitting the wall outside. (That would’ve been really unfortunate). The drone’s camera is also fully functional with a recording quality or imaging of 720p HD; it also contains an SD card, which I can use to transfer the images and videos directly into my computer. The reason I chose this specific drone was that it is relatively cheaper than most, lightweight, easy to use, and portable.
I have been working on transferring my notes into a feasible outline documenting my paper. So far, I have outlined around three articles, but I should be done by the end of the week with the basic information on global warming and correlation with rising ocean levels. I will also provide you followers with some brief summaries of the information I have acquired so far that you may find essential to my project:
As mentioned in my previous blog CA SB272 was introduced by the Senate in order to prepare for any environmental effects for coastal cities like San Francisco. It would require local governments in any specific coastal areas, which are defined as the coastal zone or under the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission, to develop a plan for sea level rise with existing programs. The deadline for this plan aims to be completed by January 1, 2034 with funding from local governments to be approved by January 1, 2029. Guidelines for this plan will be established by the California Coastal Commission and collaborating, relevant agencies by December 31, 2024.
Expanding upon the many times I may be mentioning global warming and rising ocean levels, I will also quickly delve upon what this really entails. Our global average sea level has risen 8-9 inches since 1880 because of melting glaciers and ice sheets with thermal expansion of seawater also accelerating. Now why is this important? This is because by 2100, sea levels are projected to rise at least one foot if greenhouse gas emissions are low and up to 3.7 meters if they are high. This would obviously be detrimental to many coastal communities, such as ours, and around the world.
As I conduct this project and paper, I have begun to really feel the impact and importance of what I intend to accomplish but also study upon. Though we hear these a lot, I am feeling quite anxious at the perplexities that may arise if we do not ever deal with this situation. I have stated before that I want to create a short survey or gain a few answers at what our local government or agencies are doing, such as PG&E. By the end of this week or next, I intend to get in touch with an employee to gain some insight and ask questions on how they may intend to pursue future endeavors with the risk of rising ocean levels. Stay tuned for any updates and once again, thanks for reading my blog.
Week 3: Field Work
Hi guys, today we are sinking back into week 3 after actually venturing to the site. Though the trip took a bit of time, it is better to focus on the journey instead of the destination, but in this case the destination is actually relevant and certainly important. Originally a stadium in the Hunters Point Area, it was home of the San Francisco Giants and 49ers, but it is now a trail and good picnic area. The site at Candlestick Point State Recreation Area in San Francisco was certainly an excellent source of gathering adequate footage and offered various vantage points. I used my drone from one of the docks, and I gathered images/videos for the West side of the park. I chose not to photograph the entire park, as it has different depth levels at certain areas. To exemplify the impact of ocean levels rising, I will continue to monitor both the distance from the shoreline to the sea and depth of water. Monitoring the depth of water is a bit tricky; however, I was able to use a sonar phone. The kit was a permanent installation where I installed a transducer, ran the wire towards the battery, and I plugged it into a T-box. The box sends out a wifi signal, and it allows me to get traditional sonar with pings just like a Wi-Fi signal. This sonar allows me to view the bottom composition, gain, and depth of the site that I am viewing. The app itself functions as a GPS, showing my location, distance, and maps around my area. Initial recordings showed a distance of 62’7’’ from the shoreline to the coast with a max depth of 70.5 ft from sonar imaging. As the water or ocean level rises, the expected depth should increase with the shoreline distance to the coast decreasing.
This week I will be actually experimenting with the 3D modeling using the images I acquired from the site. First, I completed the proper ordering of our first week of documentation of the site and arranged pictures, videos, and footage. As I worked on the 3d modeling aspect from the footage gathered and continued drafting the paper from my notes, I realized there was a lot of work to be done, but it seemed like I was cramming it into one entire week. Therefore, most of this week will be just the 3D aspect and testing in Meshroom with some work on the drafting part of the paper.
Accordingly, I have begun tackling one of the larger articles or papers in my plethora of research material. It provides much key information regarding my project, but it also serves as a way for you readers to gain important information. I should be hopefully done by the end of the week with the notetaking on this, and once again I will provide you all with a brief summary. The summary will focus on the IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. It is a detailed assessment of the consequences of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by emphasizing temperature thresholds, ecosystem impacts, human systems, and mitigation pathways. The reason I chose this article was the importance of our own communities, specifically impoverished ones. The impacts of reduced food security, water scarcity, and heightened risk of extreme weather events all factor as a threat to human health and livelihood, especially in vulnerable regions.
Lastly, I will venture to the site to once again conduct drone footage and proceed with some recording/testing, encompassing my notes and data. The reason I am doing these recordings weekly is to gather accurate and concise data, but also since the seasons are changing with rising temperatures. Glaciers and ice caps melting, such as from Canada and Alaska, will definitely have a direct impact on sea levels. I believe this is an opportune time to showcase this impact through my data as we slowly shift into the warmer springtime and summer. Once again, thank you for my reading blog and stay tuned for next week!
Week 4: More Paper Work
Week 4 and it’s time to again discuss the in depth part of my introduction of my paper. As my research and data collecting continues, it is important to examine the history of rising ocean levels specifically in the bay area. My paper opens up with focus on the new laws, a brief summary of climate change in the world, and this week’s focus on direct change in the bay area.
This week will be examining a few articles of how climate change will impact us in places like San Francisco and also where we live in Fremont. Currently, the latest report on rising sea levels in California by the California Ocean Protection Council describes the threat on coastal communities, such as those in the Bay Area. Projections show a trend of increasing sea levels, with statewide averages expecting to rise by 0.8 feet by 2050 and potentially reaching up to 6.6 feet by the end of the century. Tectonic activity in Humboldt Bay is exacerbating the situation as projections indicate a rise of 1.2 feet by 2050. The surges in ocean levels threaten residences but also critical infrastructure, such as wastewater treatment plants and sections of Highway 101, which connects the cities Eureka and Arcata. 70% of California’s population already resides near the coast, which heightens the vulnerability of coastal communities.
Projected California sea level rise under scenarios of differing severity
Rise in feet compared to 2020
https://ibb.co/MnWHfMF
I believe this chart is a good way to visualize the impacts, and I have taken it from an article I am analyzing. The chart describes the various scenarios and drastic impacts depending on their severity. In the low scenario, sea level rise is projected to be 0.2 feet by 2030, 0.5 feet by 2050, gradually increasing over time. In the intermediate scenario, sea level rise is more pronounced, reaching 0.4 feet by 2030, 0.8 feet by 2050, and increasing further in subsequent years. In the high scenario, sea level rise is the most severe, with projections showing the fastest rate of increase.
In the Bay Area, cities like San Francisco and Fremont are confronting the situation of rising sea levels but the situation still seems dire. San Francisco is projected to experience a sea level rise of 0.8 feet by 2050, already mirroring the statewide average. Fremont has its own challenges with projections indicating a rise of six inches by 2030, 11 inches by 2050, and 36 inches by 2100, all being relative to the levels in the year 2000. At the risk of impacting critical infrastructure, disruption of transportation networks, and heightened risk of flooding events all increase, particularly in lower areas like the Baylands and southern Warm Springs area, Alameda County will be impacted greatly and must be more aware. These forecasts do not even take into consideration the effect of storms, specifically a 50-year storm event, “a flood that has a 2% chance (1 out of 50) of occurring in any given year.” This event coupled with rising sea levels by 2050 could cause water levels to surge to 51 inches and increase risk of flooding.
According to an interactive map by the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission’s Adapting to Rising Tides Program, the Baylands and south Warm Springs area are the most at-risk zones for flooding. Essential components of our cities, such as the Union Pacific railway, 32 structures ,48 storm drains, and power lines would be left vulnerable to inundation. These threats do not just stop at physical structure but contain socioeconomic impacts which would resonate throughout our community. I examined a report from Adapting to Rising Tides which predicts that over the next 40 to 100 years, Fremont may face the loss and relocation of nearly 104,000 existing jobs with 85,000 potential new jobs that may not ever be brought to light. Approximately 13,000 existing housing units will become uninhabitable with 70,000 never being brought to fruition. Residents will also suffer with numbers of more than 28,000 having to deal with flooding of homes and neighborhoods.
Along with examining these articles, I will be taking into account the numbers and levels to show the result of our specific area of landmass and water in the Candlestick recreation park to highlight visually how it may turn out. I believe by next week I may be able to generate a short animation in Unreal Engine to show the impact from these numbers. Until next time and thank you for reading my blog on the direct consequences of rising sea levels on my and perhaps your home.
Week 5: Data Analysis
Hi guys, welcome to Week 5. This week I will be sharing some of the data I have observed and will be collecting this week. My analysis will entail the studying of a few articles and data from the textbook Environmental Research Letters, more specifically these articles Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts and Tidally adjusted estimates of topographic vulnerability to sea level rise and flooding for the contiguous United States by Claudia Tebaldi, Benjamin H Strauss, and Chris E Zervas.
Based on the National Research Council's mid-range Pacific coast sea level rise projections, it is projected to rise 3 feet locally by 2100, from a 1992 baseline. The analysis translates this to 29 percent multi-year risk of at least one flood exceeding 3 feet from 2016 to 2030, a 91 percent risk from 2016 to midcentury, and a 100 percent risk by 2100. Under the Council's high-end projections, these chances increase to 44, and 100 percent, respectively, and there exists a 100 percent change of a flood exceeding 6 feet.
https://ibb.co/L8hhwCM
To better understand the exposure to sea level rise and flood, we must utilize a good map software. By combining tidal elevation models and lidar-based (laser-based) elevation data from the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and levee location data from FEMA, we can identify both fully exposed and potentially protected land less than 1-10 feet above the local high tide line. The various exposure values show what is on the land below the selected water level or elevation using computing for any protection and without. It depicts general exposure for future sea level rise or flooding but not actual damage. Complications arise from protection, the bathtub method, elevation errors, data limitations, dynamics, and feature representation. Protection includes criteria, such as levees, walls, dams, ridges, or other features that may protect and safeguard some areas. An example would be block hydrologic connectivity at lower elevations, such as 10-year flood heights. Data limitations include incomplete levee data and elevation data that may not capture narrow seawalls, which results in a harder assessment of protection. The online tool included does allow for exclusion or inclusion of protected areas for analysis. If I am assessing protection, I will assume levees are always sufficiently tall and well built because data on height and condition are not available. However, I am assuming that these structures will not be sufficient, which is the point of this project to raise awareness and bring attention to mandating the structures and defense mechanisms to be enacted. The bathtub method involves employing elevation relative to local high tide lines (MHHW) by using near-flat water surfaces statewide to compare exposure. Future storms due to temperature changes may create uneven flooding in limited areas as well. Elevation error is accounted for by laser-based (“lidar”) data. Localized error could cause large low-lying areas to be mistakenly connected or isolated from the ocean at certain water levels. Dynamics, such as future erosion, marsh migration, coastal development and defense, or other dynamic factors affecting exposure, are not accounted for, but it is still an important factor to consider. These will be discussed in my paper for this week and how external dynamics are one of the underlying causes to our safety and impose risk.
https://ibb.co/nbDCTCL
To give some awareness to the severity of the risk posed at 6 feet, we can observe this chart. At 6 feet, 13,276 people (1.6 percent of the total population in San Francisco) and $10,845 million are exposed in total.
https://ibb.co/6gN50xS
Now this chart examines the observed water levels at a station near Candlestick Point Recreation Area. Flood maps are based on NOAA-supplied lidar elevation data and achieve near-perfect consistency with NOAA’s Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer over the two products’ shared elevation range (1-6 feet MHHW). The analysis adds elevation data from USGS to fill rare gaps or to make rare updates after newer lidar data become available. From this observed data, I have determined that throughout the time I have visited, water levels have indeed risen. On March 12, the observed water level was 0.19 ft, but the most recent data I have visited on March 26, shows an increase of 0.12 ft to 0.31 ft. Though it has rained and the temperature is warmer, we are observing a steady increase in water depth.
As I approach the midpoint of my project, I will be showcasing my field data next week, so we can compare my field work to available data and information in my paper. This will be important as it will be a good indication of what is occurring in our bay and perhaps the world. Until next time, thank you for reading my blog.
Sources:
Surging Seas Risk Finder: https://riskfinder.climatecentral.org/place/san-francisco.ca.us?comparisonType=place&forecastType=NOAA2017_int_p50&level=6&unit=ft
Surging Seas Risk Zone Map: https://ss2.climatecentral.org/#9/37.7186/-122.3863?show=satellite&projections=0-K14_RCP85-SLR&level=6&unit=feet&pois=hide
Strauss, B. H., Ziemlinski, R., Weiss, J. L., & Overpeck, J. T. (2012). “Tidally adjusted estimates of topographic vulnerability to sea level rise and flooding for the contiguous United States.” Environmental Research Letters, 7(1), 014033.
Tebaldi, C., Strauss, B. H., & Zervas, C. E. (2012). “Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts.” Environmental Research Letters,7(1), 014032.
Week 6: Discussion of PG&E
Hi guys and welcome back to my week 6 blog. This week I will focus on creating a short survey for a PG&E member entailing short multiple choice questions and perhaps a few lines of free response if they are willing to provide. The questions will cover the topics of awareness/concern, perceptions of PG&E’s efforts, PG&E’s preparedness, communication and transparency, as well as suggestions/improvements.
So what is PG&E? Pacific Gas and Electric Company or PG&E is a subsidiary of PG&E Corporation, which is one of the largest combined natural gas and electric companies in our country. The company, regulated by the California Public Utilities Commission, is responsible for providing these services to about 16 million people throughout a 70,000 square-mile area in northern and central California. Now, we are focusing on this specific company to assess what they will do in case of any threats to company infrastructure, such as their 42,141 miles of natural gas pipelines, 6,438 miles of transmission pipelines, 106,681 circuit miles of electric distribution lines, and 18,466 circuit miles of interconnected transmission lines. Many lines, factories, and powerplants may be directly impacted, so it is up to the CPUC and us to avoid any damage that we can. (1)
The worst thing that could occur is a 1.4 meter rise in sea level paired with storm surges. These would result in a huge threat to PG&E’s transmission assets in the future. A preliminary estimate to upgrade natural gas transmission may amount to $4-7 million with only 37 kilometers (23 miles) of the transmission pipeline to be encased in a concrete coating. Another 19 kilometers (12 miles) would need to be established with concrete footings with less than a kilometer of pipeline needing to be deactivated in case of rising sea levels. PG&E is conducting extensive research to understand the impacts of coastal flooding, such as sea level rise, with a budget of only $50,000. The preparations for sea level rise may include, “elevating and replacing equipment,” and completely moving and rebuilding a substation may amount to $100 million at the minimum, according to PG&E.(2)
The CPUC is taking many steps to ensure safety and reliability because the public utilities are investor owned as well. The many impacts of global warming feature dilemmas, such as “inundation of power plants and substations, increased temperatures causing additional strain on transformers, increased line loss between electric generators and load, and increased overall electric demand for air conditioning during heat waves.” The CPUC has issued an Order, (R.18-04-019), on May 7, 2018 to confront climate change by adapting methods with their own rules. Though there have been two decisions issued in R.18-04-019 about electric and gas utilities, the proceeding is still open to consider any future filings by energy utilities and climate adaptation in other industries under the CPUC.(3)
https://ibb.co/MNQ25m0
The energy sectors will also have to file some Community Engagement Plans, vulnerability assessments, and feedback surveys on the above schedules to match other CPUC processes like General Rate Cases. (2)
California has made large progress in decarbonizing our electric system by using multiple strategies, such as, “scaling renewable energy, rooftop solar installations, electric vehicle adoption, and battery energy storage to among the highest levels in the nation.” However, other sectors still need to undergo progress and integrate renewable energy with investments in, “the grid and energy storage, dramatic improvements in energy efficiency, and evolving the natural gas system,” in order to further the shift to electrifying vehicles and buildings. The plan entails the company to place the state’s electric supply resources over many loadserving entities, while meeting the greenhouse gas emission targets. They will also use high distributed energy resources (DER) to modernize our electric grid to integrate more of these resources like EV charging. Another crucial part is the decarbonization and gas system planning to, “to address system reliability standards, market structure and regulations, gas infrastructure, gas revenues and rate design, and workforce issues.”(4)
It is important to be involved, and there are ways to do so. Emails and documents are always being sent by the CPUC to parties participating in the proceedings. Adding yourself to the list would require emailing then and including the proceeding number along with names, title, organization, address, etc. Procedural information and advice to individuals and groups to those willing to participate is highly valuable and creates impact, which is what I want to achieve. Though not all of us are able to directly access or may have the time to proceed with these activities, I am conducting this brief survey to gain more insight and see where we stand as normal citizens/individuals. Thank you for tuning in for this week's blog!
Sources:
Company Profile: https://www.pge.com/en/about/company-information/company-profile.html
PG&E Climate Strategy Report: https://www.pge.com/content/dam/pge/docs/about/pge-systems/PGE-Climate-Strategy-Report.pdf
CPUC Climate Adaptation: https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/industries-and-topics/electrical-energy/climate-change#:~:text=Rising%20sea%20levels%20that%20can,air%20conditioning%20during%20heat%20waves
Climate risks are accelerating. Here’s what Duke, PG&E and 16 other utilities expect to pay: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/climate-risks-accelerating-heres-what-costs-duke-pge-and-16-other-utilities-expect/588860/
Week 7: Data and Another Threat?
Hi guys and welcome back to week 7 of my blog. This week I have been analyzing a few articles about the impact of carbon emissions and global warming due to the negative influence of pollution in the bay area, which is enhanced by rising groundwater.
A key problem that I have observed this week is the impact of rising ground water, which may be as detrimental or even more than coastal flooding. As sea level rises, coastal groundwater will also rise in many urban environments. This is due to denser saltwater moving inland beneath our soil, which pushes the layer of groundwater above it. A report from the ESS open archive states that more than 5200 state and federally-managed contaminated sites are at risk. Our soils will become even more contaminated, physically changing the chemical & biological conditions that impact the transport of current contaminants. This issue is extremely major due to the fact that many of these cities are already placed under high levels of pollution, such as East Palo Alto, San Jose, West Oakland, Richmond, and San Francisco.
Bay Area Hazardous Sites and 2100 Sea Level Rise
https://ibb.co/0cFXGdh
Climate change will undoubtedly persist, and its rate is dependent on the rate at which we continue to burn fossil fuels. Currently, around 326 sites are vulnerable to groundwater depth/flow direction changes because of sea level rise. This includes 18.1 million hectares of contaminated land. But what exactly are these sites? These sites can range from former military bases and chemical factories to gas stations and dry cleaners. Contamination from these industries affect the soil with a plethora of threats, such as, “heavy metals, chemicals, pesticides and herbicides, and radioisotopes.
The reason why these components in the soil pose such a large threat is that they will become even more activated from rising groundwater and affect our neighborhoods. As they are carried into nearby neighborhoods, these compounds can penetrate our sewer pipes and drain systems, whether through gaseous form or physical, and contaminate our homes, workplaces, and schools.
As well as observing the impacts of groundwater, I will provide some of my own data. Over the past few weeks, I have collected some of the inching or rising seawater on the coast of San Francisco at my site. Noting the distance from the shore, I measured 62’7’’ from the shore to coastline on my first day. After that, I measured 60’3’’ on my second week, 58’5’’ on the third, 55’4’’ on the fouth, and 52’4’’ on the last.’ Noticing the trends, it is obvious the distance has been closing in, and I have been making sure to go at the same time. Recently, the weather has become increasingly warmer and rainfall has been prominent. We can infer that this may be the most direct cause to see these trends as I am not measuring over the course of a longer time, such as years.
Using data from flood maps based on NOAA-supplied lidar elevation data, we can see that the relative max tide level has increased slightly, towards the 7 ft mark instead of the usual 6 ft. Below, I am comparing some of the days more recently that I observed with the data I looked at previously.
https://ibb.co/MZnJpJn
Week 8: Awareness Plans
Welcome back to week 8, and this week we will be getting ready to analyze some data trends and models.
Finding a specific model to emulate is difficult because scientists argue whether ocean level patterns are accelerating or decelerating. But why do we even measure trends in sea levels? We can pinpoint it to around three reasons, being that they help us detect climate change, predict any future movements, and calibrate other rates like glacier and ice sheet melting. We use trends in almost everything from economics to financial analysis, so we can use it here too. I have been analyzing NOAA’s (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) tidal datums, which are the official vertical reference points for the nation’s coasts, from the NWLON (National Water Level Observation Network) because they are the benchmarks for local water height/depth starting points. The data is maintained by CO-OPS oceanographers and is the legal basis for shoreline determination, so I believe this will be the basis for my data analysis. It is much simpler to select a time, such as the year 2000, to see the changes up to our present and analyze the data more closely. Next week, I will be discussing more about this and providing some of the images that I have observed.
https://ibb.co/2sb4NvP
https://ibb.co/7C3BQgF
The average water level has indeed risen, and these are only two charts highlighting the gap of only 24 years. Even if it seems like a small increase, it can result in devastating consequences, and these will have great impact as I have mentioned before. That is why it is important to continue monitoring and assessing these small rises and fluctuations as sea water expands.
I have also begun implementing physical terrain from google earth and surrounding images to create a virtual model of the site. These details are important as they will better demonstrate the area around and visualize the effects. To do this I will have to install another app, Cesium for Unreal, which helps import photorealistic 3D tiles into the software.
https://ibb.co/ncRPHQ0
While I intend to make a presentation based on my paper, I will be incorporating a few other key aspects, such as a short video and survey analysis towards the end. I will be meeting with my internal advisor to practice, as well as going to workshops at school to gain more insight on my presentation skills. Ultimately, the purpose of this project is to spread awareness and raise caution to the threat of rising ocean levels, but that all starts when we take action as soon as we can. Even normal individuals can do this, but the first step is always to be informed and gain insight from local sources. To do this, I am making a youtube video, but I would also like to contact a local radio station that I interned at in order to perhaps gain a brief shoutout or message about the impact of rising ocean levels.
Sources:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015JC010716
Week 9: Survey Results & Prep
Welcome to week 9 of my project. As we are approaching one of the last weeks of our time together, I would like to thank all of you for reading and taking some of your free time to tune in. This week, I will be working on the final parts of the video, sending out notices for exposure, and starting my presentation.
Below I will be showing some of the results I received from the survey by a professional PG&E member.
https://ibb.co/hZdznzd
https://ibb.co/F408yMZ
https://ibb.co/jg0S0Zh
https://ibb.co/JqXsG6y
Below is some more information on suggestions for PG&E to better address the challenges posed by rising ocean levels and how they communicate with the public about these issues?
California and PG&E work towards a common goal to transition the state to a decarbonized and more climate-resilient economy. PG&E has a commitment to remove more greenhouse gases than we emit. PG&E invests in projects and research to restore biodiversity across ecosystems and habitats as a means to be more nature positive. These goals are in line with California's vision and are to be implemented in the next two decades. I do believe PG&E attempts to advertise to the public through television commercials and ads you may come across in the public, but by going online you can learn more in depth.
Below is some more suggestions PG&E could take:
While currently PG&E's focus is on wildfires and public safety, the goal to be decarbonized and more environmentally friendly is an agreement and commitment PG&E has made with the state of California where PG&E has set dates to show compliance. It is a common misconception that PG&E benefits when customers use more energy (decoupling), in truth PG&E encourages customers to save power and be more environmentally friendly. PG&E profits are determined by how much the company invests in it's infrastructure.
Next week I will be hopefully getting in touch with a radio station addressing the issue present of rising ocean levels, my findings, and what we can expect to see as a bay area resident. Thank you for tuning in once again.