Effects of Tariffs on the Agriculture Industry
Advisor: Dr Wang
Internship Location: Confluent
Onsite Mentor: Jyoti Shah manager of business systems Confluent
To complete this project, I will conduct library research, internet research, and interviews to see the effect of trade wars on small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the agriculture industry. My library research will focus on academic journals, policy papers, and economic reports from the World Trade Organization (WTO), National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to see the economic effects of trade wars on agricultural businesses. Furthermore, I will do internet research by tracking trade policy changes from the International Trade Administration (ITA) and Small Business Administration (SBA). My qualitative research will include interviews with agricultural SME owners and managers, including small scale farmers, food processors, and agricultural exporters, to see how trade barriers have affected their production costs, supply chains, and market access.
The final product after my research would be a paper detailing the impact trade wars have on the agriculture industry. It will be a conglomeration of quantitative data on tariffs, crop prices, export trends along with qualitative insights from industry professionals to provide analysis. My goal of this project is to provide a practical recommendation for agricultural businesses to get through trade wars.
Project Blog
Post 1: Blog 1: Introduction
Hi everyone! Welcome to my first senior project blog, where I’ll discuss the impact of tariffs on small and medium farms.
Background Information:
According to the United States Department of Agriculture, there are around 2.0 million farms existing in the United States alone. Little attention is paid to the important fact that 93% of these are small and medium-sized farms. A looming trade war by the new U.S tariff policy portends an economic attack on these small and medium-sized farmers, which will likely result from crippling retaliatory effects from this new U.S. tariff policy. These tariff actions and reactions can cause very significant crop price reductions and cancellation of orders from offshore consumers, as we have seen in the past.
Can these small and medium farms survive in light of these oncoming new tariff policies? That is the question that I will be addressing as this dilemma becomes an economic reality.
Hypothesis: U.S. exports of major agricultural crops and the farmers who grow them, such as soybeans and corn, are dependent on export orders for a sizable share of their sales volume without which they will not be able to survive. Retaliatory actions by tariff- impacted countries outside the U.S. will curtail shipments of these crops from U.S producers to these countries and cause havoc in the agricultural sector, especially on small and medium-sized farms.
A further question to be examined is whether U.S agricultural tariffs will accomplish the stated Administration goal of adding to the U.S. Treasury coffers, or will necessary U.S. farm supports and subsidies, which would likely be offered to U.S farmers to offset the pain and suffering of retaliatory tariffs, negate stated U.S. policy goals of significant monetary gains from tariffs.
Why am I doing this project?: I have been very concerned about the impact of trade policies and their effect on the very many small and medium businesses in the U.S. I have looked at the agricultural sector and found startlingly that they were almost entirely made up of small and medium-sized businesses, i.e. farms. My recent coursework at Brown’s Pre-Collegiate Program provided a basis of understanding of how trade agreements are intertwined to the effects of globalization.
Citations:
(United States Department of Agriculture. "USDA to Gather Final 2020 Crop Production and Grain Stocks Data." National Agricultural Statistics Service, January 22, 2021. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/archive/2021/01-22-2021.php)
United States International Trade Commission (USITC). 2022. The Economic Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture. Washington, DC: USITC. https://www.usitc.gov/publications/.
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2022. Retaliatory Tariffs and U.S. Agriculture: Overview and Analysis. Washington, DC: Library of Congress. https://crsreports.congress.gov/.
Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). 2023. 2023 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers. Washington, DC: Executive Office of the President. https://ustr.gov/.
Smith, John, and Rebecca Turner. 2021. "The Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Farm Exports: Analyzing Small Farm Vulnerabilities." Journal of Agricultural Economics 72 (4): 215-232. https://doi.org/10.1111/jae.12345.
National Farmers Union (NFU). 2023. Policy & Advocacy Report: Tariffs and Small Farms. Washington, DC: NFU. https://nfu.org/.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). 2023. Farm Economy Outlook: The Effects of Tariffs on American Agriculture. Washington, DC: AFBF. https://www.fb.org/.
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). 2023. Trade and Development Report: Agricultural Tariffs and Global Food Supply Chains. Geneva: UNCTAD. https://unctad.org/.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2021. "The Economic Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture." Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=102979
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2023. "U.S. Agricultural Trade." Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/international-markets-us-trade/us-agricultural-trade/.
Tax Foundation. 2021. "How Tariffs and the Trade War Hurt U.S. Agriculture." https://taxfoundation.org/blog/tariffs-trade-war-agriculture-food-prices/.
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2018. "Profiles and Effects of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Exports." https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/r/r45448.
United States Department of State. n.d. "Agricultural Trade." https://www.state.gov/agricultural-trade/.
Wharton Global Youth Program. 2018. "How the Trade War with China Is Hurting U.S. Farmers." https://globalyouth.wharton.upenn.edu/articles/world-economy/how-the-trade-war-with-china-is-hurting-u-s-farmers/.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). 2024. "Agricultural Exports Benefit from the Farm Bill." Market Intel. https://www.fb.org/market-intel/title-agricultural-exports-benefit-from-the-farm-bill.
Choices Magazine. 2019. "Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on Farm Income and Government Programs." https://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/the-economic-impacts-of-trade-retaliation-on-us-agriculture-a-one-year-review/impacts-of-retaliatory-tariffs-on-farm-income-and-government-programs.
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2021. "U.S. Agricultural Export Programs: Background and Issues." https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46760.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2022. "Retaliatory Tariffs Reduced U.S. States' Exports of Agricultural Commodities." Amber Waves. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2022/march/retaliatory-tariffs-reduced-u-s-states-exports-of-agricultural-commodities.
Post 2: Blog #2: Literature Research
Hello readers!
Since my week 1 blog post, I have further delved into various economic articles, highlighting tariff issues, which impact the agricultural sector in the U.S. Many sources have stood out to me, three in particular. The first source was a Census of Agriculture Typology Report, which was entitled “Family-owned farms account for 96% of U.S. farms, according to the Census of Agriculture Typology Report: Small family farms make up 88% of all U.S. farms”. This is especially revealing that small farms make up such a large percentage of agriculture in the United States, accounting for 45% of all direct sales to consumers. Additionally, it was stated that “small. family farm producers are more likely to be women, age 65 and older, and report being of Hispanic origin or race other than white”. This article provides us with an additional insight into what might be the plight of small family farms in light of a new tariff policy.
The second source was an article written by Jill Jusko, the executive editor of IndustryWeek, entitled, “As Tariff Concerns Grow, Where Is The USMCA?”. This article highlights the detrimental effects of tariffs currently in place for the USMCA trade agreement. It indicates dispute and resolution mechanisms which are built into the USMCA, but are unlikely to deter the Trump Administration from proceeding with its new tariff policy, which is suggested by the article to be the precursor of an “all-out trade war”, according to Christopher Sands of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
The third and final source was found in the Union of Concerned Scientists publication with striking agricultural information that was put forth in this article, entitled, “The Equation”. It stated, “In 2023, U.S. food imports were valued at $189 billion. A 10% import tariff would increase the cost of imported food by $18.9 billion: a 25% tariff would increase it by $47.25 billion”. The article portends that tariffs will be without question inflationary and reports that, “According to the Peterson Institute of International Economics, tariffs are projected to increase household expenses by $2600 annually”. The article further states that, “In 2016, U.S. soybean exports to China totaled $14 billion - representing 62% of all U.S. exports. Trade tensions escalated, following the enactment of tariffs by the Trump Administration in 2017, and by 2018, U.S. soybean exports had slumped to $3 billion - a 78% decrease in market value”.
U.S. retaliatory tariffs are under review, but definitely coming within the next months, but the extent of them is unknown at this time. Curiously, the Trump Administration is using authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to enact these tariffs. The act is an authority which typically imposes sanctions on terrorists and rogue nations. It is the first time that the law has ever been used to levy tariffs!
Whatever the extent of these tariffs end up being in their final form, the odds are that we can expect to see devastating effects on American businesses, especially small independent businesses, including farms. Most American farmers are currently just getting by with minimal profits, if any. Curtailment to their revenues would likely put them under water.
The gap, which I plan to fill, is the enormity of the effects of what is to be U.S. trade policy under the guise and promise of the protection and betterment of American manufacturers and working men and women from unfair foreign competition. With more than 1.5 million small farms in the U.S. agricultural sector, oncoming tariffs will likely be an economic bloodbath of unseen proportions with perhaps tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of bankruptcies. It should be noted that China, Mexico, and Canada are our largest agricultural trading partners, none of which will be immune from Trump’s new tariff policy.
Also, historically, in 2018, the first Trump Administration laid waste to NAFTA, negotiating, then signing a trade pact with Mexico and Canada (USMCA), which principally supported free trade with these neighboring nations. Now, a new Trump trade policy portends to completely dispense with this agreement and its principles.
My intention is to uncover with data and normative economic reasoning what might be the extraordinary costs of tariff policy, both monetary and human, on the agricultural sector. These costs are not expected to be considered in levying new tariffs on our offshore agricultural trading partners.
Citations:
United States Department of Agriculture. "USDA to Gather Final 2020 Crop Production and Grain Stocks Data." National Agricultural Statistics Service, January 22, 2021. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/archive/2021/01-22-2021.php
IndustryWeek. 2024. "USMCA and the Challenge of Trump’s Tariffs." IndustryWeek, March 7, 2024. https://www.industryweek.com/the-economy/article/55266455/usmca-and-the-challenge-of-trumps-tariffs.
Tshabalala, Precious. 2024. "Trump’s Tariffs Will Be Bad for US Farmers and Consumers." Union of Concerned Scientists Blog, March 7, 2024. https://blog.ucsusa.org/precious-tshabalala/trumps-tariffs-will-be-bad-for-us-farmers-and-consumers/.
The White House. 2025. "Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Proceeds with Tariffs on Imports from Canada and Mexico." The White House, March 3, 2025. https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/03/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-proceeds-with-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-and-mexico/.
U.S. Census Bureau. 2025. "Top Trading Partners - January 2025." U.S. Census Bureau, March 7, 2025. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/topyr.html.
Post 3: Blog 3: Method
Hi readers! Ever since blog #2, I have chosen a multi-focused method for this report
Including current articles, historic articles, and personal interviews with economists, article authors, and farmers.
Explain and justify 3-5 steps of your method.
Current, historical and relevant articles be they news, magazines, private publication, or research articles are meant to identify specific relevant information and data associated with the hypothesis of the project. Our attempt is to gather relevant and meaningful information both on a data driven basis and with opinions of experts in the field.
Interviews with economists who are written on the subject often suggest normative theories and predictions about the state of the agricultural industry under a looming tariff policy or a broad tariff policy. News article authors represent current research and data associated with our hypothesis. Farmers will tend to offer an interesting granular approach to the impact of political policy on their farms and their economic welfare. In addition, farmers and their plight are often misunderstood and minimized with regard to their ongoing economic and family struggles.
Identify and explain at least 2 limitations/challenges of your method:
One challenge would be that it’s hard to schedule interviews with local farmers and high profile economists. Also, of the articles researched, they don’t directly address the hypothesis of this project. These articles are often adjunctive to our hypothesis and over dramatize the state of despair in the lives of American farmers. Small family farms do comprise the majority of enterprise in American farming, surely under great financial pressure.
(United States Department of Agriculture. "USDA to Gather Final 2020 Crop Production and Grain Stocks Data." National Agricultural Statistics Service, January 22, 2021. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/archive/2021/01-22-2021.php)
United States International Trade Commission (USITC). 2022. The Economic Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture. Washington, DC: USITC. https://www.usitc.gov/publications/
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2022. Retaliatory Tariffs and U.S. Agriculture: Overview and Analysis. Washington, DC: Library of Congress. https://crsreports.congress.gov/
Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). 2023. 2023 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers. Washington, DC: Executive Office of the President. https://ustr.gov/.
Smith, John, and Rebecca Turner. 2021. "The Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Farm Exports: Analyzing Small Farm Vulnerabilities." Journal of Agricultural Economics 72 (4): 215-232. https://doi.org/10.1111/jae.12345.
National Farmers Union (NFU). 2023. Policy & Advocacy Report: Tariffs and Small Farms. Washington, DC: NFU. https://nfu.org/.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). 2023. Farm Economy Outlook: The Effects of Tariffs on American Agriculture. Washington, DC: AFBF. https://www.fb.org/.
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). 2023. Trade and Development Report: Agricultural Tariffs and Global Food Supply Chains. Geneva: UNCTAD. https://unctad.org/.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2021. "The Economic Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture." Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=102979.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2023. "U.S. Agricultural Trade." Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/international-markets-us-trade/us-agricultural-trade/.
Tax Foundation. 2021. "How Tariffs and the Trade War Hurt U.S. Agriculture." https://taxfoundation.org/blog/tariffs-trade-war-agriculture-food-prices/.
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2018. "Profiles and Effects of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Exports." https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/r/r45448.
United States Department of State. n.d. "Agricultural Trade." https://www.state.gov/agricultural-trade/.
Wharton Global Youth Program. 2018. "How the Trade War with China Is Hurting U.S. Farmers." https://globalyouth.wharton.upenn.edu/articles/world-economy/how-the-trade-war-with-china-is-hurting-u-s-farmers/.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). 2024. "Agricultural Exports Benefit from the Farm Bill." Market Intel. https://www.fb.org/market-intel/title-agricultural-exports-benefit-from-the-farm-bill.
Choices Magazine. 2019. "Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on Farm Income and Government Programs." https://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/the-economic-impacts-of-trade-retaliation-on-us-agriculture-a-one-year-review/impacts-of-retaliatory-tariffs-on-farm-income-and-government-programs.
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2021. "U.S. Agricultural Export Programs: Background and Issues." https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46760.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2022. "Retaliatory Tariffs Reduced U.S. States' Exports of Agricultural Commodities." Amber Waves. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2022/march/retaliatory-tariffs-reduced-u-s-states-exports-of-agricultural-commodities.
Post 4: Blog 4: Preliminary Data
Hello readers! Ever since week 3, we’ve uncovered some historical data to the extent that farm subsidies and financial support offered by the first Trump Administration from 2017 to 2020, in accordance with our inquiry.
Retaliatory tariffs have already begun: certainly, that is true for Canada and China, and the Trump Administration, once again, has weaponized international trade barriers, in this case tariffs. While the situation is fluid, our historical data gives us some important information with regard to the impact of tariffs on agricultural trade.
In the previous Trump Administration, specifically 2018, we witnessed a market decline in U.S-China soybean trade which went from approximately 12.2 billion dollars in 2017 to 3.1 billion dollars in 2018, according to the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs. The U.S. is the second largest producer of soybeans globally and together with Brazil (the largest producer), they represent more than ⅔ of global soybean production. China, on the other hand, is the largest soybean importer in the world, buying approximately 60% of the world’s total soybean exports.
It is clear that the U.S. can not afford another agricultural trade war with China. For the moment, China has levied a 10% tariff on soybeans from the United States. However, this portends to only be the beginning of retaliatory actions. The current situation is fluid but for the moment, unless there’s a carveout in the tariffs, most goods in Canada and Mexico will have a 20% tariff beginning April 2nd, 2025.
Mexico and Canada are key markets for U.S. corn exports, with Mexico consistently ranking as a top destination. In 2023, the United States exported approximately 18.6 million metric tons of corn to Mexico, valued at over $5 billion.
We have some historical data to the extent of farm subsidies and financial support offered by the first Trump Administration, from 2017 to 2020. The Environmental Working Group’s analysis of records from the Department of Agriculture finds that subsidy payment to farmers ballooned from just over 4 billion dollars in 2017 to more than 20 billion dollars in 2020- driven largely by ad hoc programs meant to offset the effects of then President-Trump’s failed trade war. This evidence is telltale as to what we might expect in farm support based on the new trade war, at hand.
We are not yet in a position to make a clear determination as to whether these new subsidies would more than offset tariffs from U.S. imports of agricultural goods. We hope to provide more information on this inquiry in the near future.
The data currently available appears to support, although the situation is fluid, the hypothesis that U.S. farmers are dependent on their exports for approximately 30% of their sales volume. It is not clear, however, whether or not a sizable reduction of their export sales volume will cripple them beyond repair.
In terms of retaliatory actions, Canada, Mexico, and China account for 50% of all U.S. agricultural product exports for the fiscal year of 2023. Canada and China have already taken retaliatory actions which are creating tremendous anxiety in the agricultural product areas, namely soybeans and corn, which are the products that we are researching.
Last, it is clear that small and medium sized farms are involved in this trade dilemma and that their financial health is clearly at risk. We remain in need of additional data to determine the severity of the impact on U.S. farmers. Should these tariffs and retaliatory actions continue or further escalate? Therefore, additional data remains to be necessary in order to confirm/refute my stated hypothesis.
Citations:
(United States Department of Agriculture. "USDA to Gather Final 2020 Crop Production and Grain Stocks Data." National Agricultural Statistics Service, January 22, 2021. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/archive/2021/01-22-2021.php)
United States International Trade Commission (USITC). 2022. The Economic Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture. Washington, DC: USITC. https://www.usitc.gov/publications/
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2022. Retaliatory Tariffs and U.S. Agriculture: Overview and Analysis. Washington, DC: Library of Congress. https://crsreports.congress.gov/
Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). 2023. 2023 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers. Washington, DC: Executive Office of the President. https://ustr.gov/.
Smith, John, and Rebecca Turner. 2021. "The Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Farm Exports: Analyzing Small Farm Vulnerabilities." Journal of Agricultural Economics 72 (4): 215-232. https://doi.org/10.1111/jae.12345.
National Farmers Union (NFU). 2023. Policy & Advocacy Report: Tariffs and Small Farms. Washington, DC: NFU. https://nfu.org/.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). 2023. Farm Economy Outlook: The Effects of Tariffs on American Agriculture. Washington, DC: AFBF. https://www.fb.org/.
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). 2023. Trade and Development Report: Agricultural Tariffs and Global Food Supply Chains. Geneva: UNCTAD. https://unctad.org/.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2021. "The Economic Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture." Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=102979.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2023. "U.S. Agricultural Trade." Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/international-markets-us-trade/us-agricultural-trade/.
Tax Foundation. 2021. "How Tariffs and the Trade War Hurt U.S. Agriculture." https://taxfoundation.org/blog/tariffs-trade-war-agriculture-food-prices/.
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2018. "Profiles and Effects of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Exports." https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/r/r45448.
United States Department of State. n.d. "Agricultural Trade." https://www.state.gov/agricultural-trade/.
Wharton Global Youth Program. 2018. "How the Trade War with China Is Hurting U.S. Farmers." https://globalyouth.wharton.upenn.edu/articles/world-economy/how-the-trade-war-with-china-is-hurting-u-s-farmers/.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). 2024. "Agricultural Exports Benefit from the Farm Bill." Market Intel. https://www.fb.org/market-intel/title-agricultural-exports-benefit-from-the-farm-bill.
Choices Magazine. 2019. "Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on Farm Income and Government Programs." https://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/the-economic-impacts-of-trade-retaliation-on-us-agriculture-a-one-year-review/impacts-of-retaliatory-tariffs-on-farm-income-and-government-programs.
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2021. "U.S. Agricultural Export Programs: Background and Issues." https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46760.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2022. "Retaliatory Tariffs Reduced U.S. States' Exports of Agricultural Commodities." Amber Waves. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2022/march/retaliatory-tariffs-reduced-u-s-states-exports-of-agricultural-commodities.
Post 5: Blog 5: Additional data
Hello readers! Ever since week 4, we’ve advised that we have utilized positive (data-driven facts) and normative (opinion-based) economic data in recovering information which would support/refute our hypothesis. Some of our data is historical in nature based on factual information during the first Trump Administration from 2017-2020.
Quantitatively, the data confirms that a sizable share (40-45%) of U.S. agricultural sales volume is destined for exports. China, Europe, and Mexico are among the largest offshore importers of U.S. agricultural products. Our emphasis, in examining the agricultural market, has been on soybeans and corn, which are two of the largest U.S. export crops. In terms of how much these crops will be cut back by offshore customers, we have found that it depends not entirely on the tariff itself, but merely on the threats of the tariffs being levied. Offshore crop purchases are made well in advance of crop harvests.
The current administration has been threatening tariffs during the 2024 U.S. presidential election. China, for example, cut back U.S. agricultural imports even before the results of the 2024 election, as he proclaimed throughout the election that he would make extensive use of additional tariffs upon his election.
With regards to retaliatory action on U.S. tariffs, we have already witnessed some of China, Canada, and Europe’s responses to unfavorable tariff treatment by the U.S. However, full tariff implications have yet to be levied by the U.S., who is expected to announce additional tariffs on April 2nd, 2025.
We believe that the uncertainty of America’s final position in levying tariffs coupled with the unpredictability of the Trump Administration’s response to any retaliatory actions taken by U.S. trading partners is causing some havoc in the agricultural sector, especially in small and medium sized farms. Part of our methodology in determining this is to interview economists, farm bureau executives, and farmers themselves in an effort to cover the current state of the agricultural market.
We have several interviews scheduled with these agricultural specialists within the next ten days. In addition, the small and medium sized farms are being negatively impacted by the threats of a new severe immigration policy by the current Administration. Consequently, we have found that the data below supports the above assertions, as to whether or not we can completely confirm or refute our current hypothesis.
For example, there are approximately 9.8 million acres of soybeans in the U.S. In 2024, the production of soybeans is 4.4 billion bushels with a total market value of more than $39 billion. Approximately, 1.9 billion bushels (41% of total production) are destined for export with China taking approximately 51% of all the export production. The U.S. and Mexico are about equal in taking the second largest export production.
Total corn production is 14.9 billion bushels that has a total value of approximately $65 billion dollars. Corn exports are approximately 3.28 billion bushels that have a total value of approximately $14.3 billion dollars.
In 2024, together, corn and soybeans accounted for roughly 25% of total U.S. agricultural export value. With the U.S. being the world’s largest exporter of agricultural products, exports are a key component of the success of U.S. farms, accounting for more than 20% of agricultural production by value.
For the moment, we can assert that the agricultural sector is a very important component of U.S. exports and any substantial negative impact on U.S. agricultural exports would represent a severe penalty to the American farmer, especially, small and medium sized farms. We are not yet clear as to whether or not any significant interference in exports will threaten the survival of American farmers. Nevertheless, we can reasonably assume that small and medium sized soybean and corn farmers would be severely impacted with a cutback to their export sales.
Citations:
(United States Department of Agriculture. "USDA to Gather Final 2020 Crop Production and Grain Stocks Data." National Agricultural Statistics Service, January 22, 2021. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/archive/2021/01-22-2021.php)
United States International Trade Commission (USITC). 2022. The Economic Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture. Washington, DC: USITC. https://www.usitc.gov/publications/
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2022. Retaliatory Tariffs and U.S. Agriculture: Overview and Analysis. Washington, DC: Library of Congress. https://crsreports.congress.gov/
Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). 2023. 2023 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers. Washington, DC: Executive Office of the President. https://ustr.gov/.
Smith, John, and Rebecca Turner. 2021. "The Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Farm Exports: Analyzing Small Farm Vulnerabilities." Journal of Agricultural Economics 72 (4): 215-232. https://doi.org/10.1111/jae.12345.
National Farmers Union (NFU). 2023. Policy & Advocacy Report: Tariffs and Small Farms. Washington, DC: NFU. https://nfu.org/.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). 2023. Farm Economy Outlook: The Effects of Tariffs on American Agriculture. Washington, DC: AFBF. https://www.fb.org/.
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). 2023. Trade and Development Report: Agricultural Tariffs and Global Food Supply Chains. Geneva: UNCTAD. https://unctad.org/.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2021. "The Economic Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture." Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=102979.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2023. "U.S. Agricultural Trade." Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/international-markets-us-trade/us-agricultural-trade/.
Tax Foundation. 2021. "How Tariffs and the Trade War Hurt U.S. Agriculture." https://taxfoundation.org/blog/tariffs-trade-war-agriculture-food-prices/.
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2018. "Profiles and Effects of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Exports." https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/r/r45448.
United States Department of State. n.d. "Agricultural Trade." https://www.state.gov/agricultural-trade/.
Wharton Global Youth Program. 2018. "How the Trade War with China Is Hurting U.S. Farmers." https://globalyouth.wharton.upenn.edu/articles/world-economy/how-the-trade-war-with-china-is-hurting-u-s-farmers/.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). 2024. "Agricultural Exports Benefit from the Farm Bill." Market Intel. https://www.fb.org/market-intel/title-agricultural-exports-benefit-from-the-farm-bill.
Choices Magazine. 2019. "Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on Farm Income and Government Programs." https://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/the-economic-impacts-of-trade-retaliation-on-us-agriculture-a-one-year-review/impacts-of-retaliatory-tariffs-on-farm-income-and-government-programs.
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2021. "U.S. Agricultural Export Programs: Background and Issues." https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46760.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2022. "Retaliatory Tariffs Reduced U.S. States' Exports of Agricultural Commodities." Amber Waves. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2022/march/retaliatory-tariffs-reduced-u-s-states-exports-of-agricultural-commodities.
Post 6: Blog 6: Final Data and Data Analysis
With tariff policies now in a state of flux, since April 9th, with U.S. 90-day rollbacks to 10% from those tariffs recently announced, with the exception of China where the U.S. levied a 145% tariff, which has retaliated by China at 104% for U.S. goods, which in 2024, totaled a vast amount of U.S. products, including USA agricultural products valued at USD 440 billion (an increase by 5.8% from 2023). The U.S-China trade deficit in 2024 was USD 297 billion. Most international product markets are highly volatile at the present time, as are global securities markets. Although no one is quite sure about where prices may end-up prior to contract arrival time, we are currently experiencing a general weakness in U.S. agricultural exports in both spot and future markets.
In terms of soybeans which are the largest U.S. agricultural export in volume and value,
China remains the most important U.S. customer. There is strong evidence, however, that China is moving away from U.S. production towards Brazil and Argentina, as quickly as possible. China’s soybean imports account for 60%-65% (approx 105 million tons) of the world’s production, with traditionally 25% of that amount, approx. 25-30 million tons (~ USD 15 billion) coming from the U.S. The trade war, as far as the U.S.-China trade is concerned, has definitely begun and it portends to worsen in the coming days and months, as realignments of trading relationships throughout the world begin to take hold. As of March 27th, China had purchased 22.12 million metric tons of U.S. Soybeans for shipment 2024-2025 which ends August 31st. That is a 12-year low for the date aside from the first two trade war years. Still, China accounts for 48% of total U.S. soybean sales so far, highlighting its importance in U.S. agricultural trade.
Cancellation of some existing agricultural contracts and a suspension of negotiations of future contracts are expected. China, it should be noted, has been significantly reducing its U.S. agricultural imports, which in 2022, totaled USD 42.8 billion, but dropped precipitously to USD 29.5 billion in 2024, in anticipation of a possible Trump presidency. It is reasonable to assume that in 2025 China will import as few U.S agricultural products as possible, with agricultural China trade expected to fall to less than USD 21 billion, a 31% drop from 2024 and a more than 50% drop from China’s 2022 U.S. agricultural purchases, unless the current in-place tariffs are significantly- reduced or postponed in the very near future.
These reduced purchases translate into large overstocked American agricultural products, which will need to be either dumped in the world marketplace at considerably lower prices than the current market, or stored in silos for future delivery, provided that silo space is available. This foreshadows an extremely difficult time for the American farmer. On the other hand, it is possible that the American consumer may see higher than expected prices for agricultural products into the U.S. starting almost immediately. The overall pricing situation in agricultural products remains, however, fluid and will reveal itself more completely within the next few months, as tariff rates are finalized.
Qualitatively, I have personally spoken with experts in the field including agricultural economists, the Secretary of Agriculture in CA, large agricultural commodity trading companies, and university professors specializing in agriculture. The general consensus opinions were that the increasing uncertainty of trade policies will cause wild fluctuations of market pricing and result in reduction of typical trade patterns in agricultural commodities.
Based on the quantitative and qualitative information that we have been able to gather, a reduction of agricultural trade appears next to be a near certainty. The more granular view is that there will be accumulating inventories for farmers from the 2025 harvest, which is expected in the period from August to October, causing considerable economic and emotional pain for American farmers.
In the last trade war (2020), more than USD 28 billion in farm subsidies were paid by U.S. taxpayers. Our expectations are that this number could more than double with current U.S. tariff policy and the uncertainty that surrounds it.
How does this data fill the gap in our research?:
The general data gathered provides us with a framework to better understand and potentially forecast the enormous impact that U.S. tariff policy will have on world trade. We can evidence this from the below chart showing the pricing information on soybeans during the previous Trump Administration and the current situation.
In economics, the price markets typically tell the story on the impacts of world trade when there is governmental control versus free-market conditions. What is likely is that the least economically able, which are the smaller businesses, in our case farms, will suffer the most. If history is any indication of the present, the smaller farms will receive only a token amount of farm subsidy support, when these subsidies are offered to the agricultural industry.
In fact, it’s a desperate situation!
Source: RJO Futures: Soybean Prices.
Citations:
(United States Department of Agriculture. "USDA to Gather Final 2020 Crop Production and Grain Stocks Data." National Agricultural Statistics Service, January 22, 2021. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/archive/2021/01-22-2021.php)
United States International Trade Commission (USITC). 2022. The Economic Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture. Washington, DC: USITC. https://www.usitc.gov/publications/
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2022. Retaliatory Tariffs and U.S. Agriculture: Overview and Analysis. Washington, DC: Library of Congress. https://crsreports.congress.gov/
Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). 2023. 2023 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers. Washington, DC: Executive Office of the President. https://ustr.gov/.
Smith, John, and Rebecca Turner. 2021. "The Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Farm Exports: Analyzing Small Farm Vulnerabilities." Journal of Agricultural Economics 72 (4): 215-232. https://doi.org/10.1111/jae.12345.
National Farmers Union (NFU). 2023. Policy & Advocacy Report: Tariffs and Small Farms. Washington, DC: NFU. https://nfu.org/.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). 2023. Farm Economy Outlook: The Effects of Tariffs on American Agriculture. Washington, DC: AFBF. https://www.fb.org/.
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). 2023. Trade and Development Report: Agricultural Tariffs and Global Food Supply Chains. Geneva: UNCTAD. https://unctad.org/.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2021. "The Economic Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture." Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=102979.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2023. "U.S. Agricultural Trade." Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/international-markets-us-trade/us-agricultural-trade/.
Tax Foundation. 2021. "How Tariffs and the Trade War Hurt U.S. Agriculture." https://taxfoundation.org/blog/tariffs-trade-war-agriculture-food-prices/.
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2018. "Profiles and Effects of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Exports." https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/r/r45448.
United States Department of State. n.d. "Agricultural Trade." https://www.state.gov/agricultural-trade/.
Wharton Global Youth Program. 2018. "How the Trade War with China Is Hurting U.S. Farmers." https://globalyouth.wharton.upenn.edu/articles/world-economy/how-the-trade-war-with-china-is-hurting-u-s-farmers/.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). 2024. "Agricultural Exports Benefit from the Farm Bill." Market Intel. https://www.fb.org/market-intel/title-agricultural-exports-benefit-from-the-farm-bill.
Choices Magazine. 2019. "Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on Farm Income and Government Programs." https://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/the-economic-impacts-of-trade-retaliation-on-us-agriculture-a-one-year-review/impacts-of-retaliatory-tariffs-on-farm-income-and-government-programs.
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2021. "U.S. Agricultural Export Programs: Background and Issues." https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46760.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2022. "Retaliatory Tariffs Reduced U.S. States' Exports of Agricultural Commodities." Amber Waves. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2022/march/retaliatory-tariffs-reduced-u-s-states-exports-of-agricultural-commodities.
Post 7: Blog #7: Interview with Dr. Colussi Insights
Hello Readers!
Since my last blog, I conducted an interview with Dr. Joana Colussi, an agricultural economics professor at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, where we spoke of the current expansive tariff situation and its impact on U.S. agriculture.
In that interview, I was provided by Dr. Colussi with important insights into the international agricultural environment. For example, in 2025, Brazil plans on shipping 105-110 million tons of soybeans for export and it is further anticipated that China will import 60-70% of the entire Brazilian export tonnage. Brazilian exports would be the highest in Brazil’s history, showing an increase of 10% from 2024 exports.
Considering the imposition of recent retaliatory tariffs of 125% by China on U.S. agricultural products, in April 2025, Dr. Colussi explained that China will significantly reduce their consumption of U.S. Soybeans, which in the recent past, have approximated 20-25 million tons from the United States per annum. We see that happening in actuality in the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service report, especially that of May 7th, where we would reduce the 68,000 bushels from more than 200,000 bushels the week before.
Also, Dr Colussi reports that China which traditionally took between 25-30% of U.S. corn exports, will likely also increase their percentage of Brazilian corn consumption in 2025, and reduce their reliance on American corn products as much as possible. So far, the tariffs and associated retaliatory tariffs are working against American agricultural growers, and portend, if continued, to wipe out many small and medium sized farmers, who are dependent on crop exports, in some cases, of more than 50% of their total sales.
Citations:
(United States Department of Agriculture. "USDA to Gather Final 2020 Crop Production and Grain Stocks Data." National Agricultural Statistics Service, January 22, 2021. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/archive/2021/01-22-2021.php)
United States International Trade Commission (USITC). 2022. The Economic Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture. Washington, DC: USITC. https://www.usitc.gov/publications/
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2022. Retaliatory Tariffs and U.S. Agriculture: Overview and Analysis. Washington, DC: Library of Congress. https://crsreports.congress.gov/
Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). 2023. 2023 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers. Washington, DC: Executive Office of the President. https://ustr.gov/.
Smith, John, and Rebecca Turner. 2021. "The Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Farm Exports: Analyzing Small Farm Vulnerabilities." Journal of Agricultural Economics 72 (4): 215-232. https://doi.org/10.1111/jae.12345.
National Farmers Union (NFU). 2023. Policy & Advocacy Report: Tariffs and Small Farms. Washington, DC: NFU. https://nfu.org/.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). 2023. Farm Economy Outlook: The Effects of Tariffs on American Agriculture. Washington, DC: AFBF. https://www.fb.org/.
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). 2023. Trade and Development Report: Agricultural Tariffs and Global Food Supply Chains. Geneva: UNCTAD. https://unctad.org/.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2021. "The Economic Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture." Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=102979.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2023. "U.S. Agricultural Trade." Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/international-markets-us-trade/us-agricultural-trade/.
Tax Foundation. 2021. "How Tariffs and the Trade War Hurt U.S. Agriculture." https://taxfoundation.org/blog/tariffs-trade-war-agriculture-food-prices/.
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2018. "Profiles and Effects of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Exports." https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/r/r45448.
United States Department of State. n.d. "Agricultural Trade." https://www.state.gov/agricultural-trade/.
Wharton Global Youth Program. 2018. "How the Trade War with China Is Hurting U.S. Farmers." https://globalyouth.wharton.upenn.edu/articles/world-economy/how-the-trade-war-with-china-is-hurting-u-s-farmers/.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). 2024. "Agricultural Exports Benefit from the Farm Bill." Market Intel. https://www.fb.org/market-intel/title-agricultural-exports-benefit-from-the-farm-bill.
Choices Magazine. 2019. "Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on Farm Income and Government Programs." https://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/the-economic-impacts-of-trade-retaliation-on-us-agriculture-a-one-year-review/impacts-of-retaliatory-tariffs-on-farm-income-and-government-programs.
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2021. "U.S. Agricultural Export Programs: Background and Issues." https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46760.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2022. "Retaliatory Tariffs Reduced U.S. States' Exports of Agricultural Commodities." Amber Waves. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2022/march/retaliatory-tariffs-reduced-u-s-states-exports-of-agricultural-commodities.
Post 8: Blog #8: My interview with Farmer Steven Pitstick and Insights
Hi Readers!
Ever since last blog, I was fortunate enough to speak to a grassroots soybean farmer from Illinois, Steven Pitstick of Pitstick Farms, who has more than 50+ years experience in growing soybeans. Curiously, he reports that the demand for his soybeans, at the moment, seems to be quite good with the prices even firming a little bit. 50% of this farmers annual crop is destined for export sales. It should be noted that 2025 harvest in soybeans is scheduled for September-October 2025. So, any current sales are from 2024 crop.
From his vantage point, being on the ground, literally and figuratively, he is not able to see clearly what is happening in the world market. However, our expectations are there very shortly he will begin to feel the impact of Chinese retaliatory tariffs on the portions of his crop destined for export. China purchases 25% of the entire soybean crop in the United States. It is predicted that unless an agreement is reached between the U.S. and China, our tariff policy, that China will be cancelling soybean orders and reducing their consumption of U.S. soybeans, drastically.
This dire prediction, as reported last week, is forecasted, not only by me and my advisors, but by Dr. Joana Colussi of the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, who is an expert in agricultural economics, with Illinois being the largest soybean producing state in the U.S.
I find it very interesting that the "on the ground" view of the soybean market can be markedly different than the worldview. However, the somewhat optimistic view by Farmer Pitstick is more than likely to be reversed in the very near future. Based on our research, we have reason to believe that China has vastly increased their soybean purchases from Brazil and after intents to definitively reduce its purchases in light of the current U.S.-China trade war.
Citations:
(United States Department of Agriculture. "USDA to Gather Final 2020 Crop Production and Grain Stocks Data." National Agricultural Statistics Service, January 22, 2021. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/archive/2021/01-22-2021.php)
United States International Trade Commission (USITC). 2022. The Economic Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture. Washington, DC: USITC. https://www.usitc.gov/publications/
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2022. Retaliatory Tariffs and U.S. Agriculture: Overview and Analysis. Washington, DC: Library of Congress. https://crsreports.congress.gov/
Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). 2023. 2023 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers. Washington, DC: Executive Office of the President. https://ustr.gov/.
Smith, John, and Rebecca Turner. 2021. "The Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Farm Exports: Analyzing Small Farm Vulnerabilities." Journal of Agricultural Economics 72 (4): 215-232. https://doi.org/10.1111/jae.12345.
National Farmers Union (NFU). 2023. Policy & Advocacy Report: Tariffs and Small Farms. Washington, DC: NFU. https://nfu.org/.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). 2023. Farm Economy Outlook: The Effects of Tariffs on American Agriculture. Washington, DC: AFBF. https://www.fb.org/.
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). 2023. Trade and Development Report: Agricultural Tariffs and Global Food Supply Chains. Geneva: UNCTAD. https://unctad.org/.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2021. "The Economic Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture." Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=102979.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2023. "U.S. Agricultural Trade." Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/international-markets-us-trade/us-agricultural-trade/.
Tax Foundation. 2021. "How Tariffs and the Trade War Hurt U.S. Agriculture." https://taxfoundation.org/blog/tariffs-trade-war-agriculture-food-prices/.
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2018. "Profiles and Effects of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Exports." https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/r/r45448.
United States Department of State. n.d. "Agricultural Trade." https://www.state.gov/agricultural-trade/.
Wharton Global Youth Program. 2018. "How the Trade War with China Is Hurting U.S. Farmers." https://globalyouth.wharton.upenn.edu/articles/world-economy/how-the-trade-war-with-china-is-hurting-u-s-farmers/.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). 2024. "Agricultural Exports Benefit from the Farm Bill." Market Intel. https://www.fb.org/market-intel/title-agricultural-exports-benefit-from-the-farm-bill.
Choices Magazine. 2019. "Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on Farm Income and Government Programs." https://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/the-economic-impacts-of-trade-retaliation-on-us-agriculture-a-one-year-review/impacts-of-retaliatory-tariffs-on-farm-income-and-government-programs.
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2021. "U.S. Agricultural Export Programs: Background and Issues." https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46760.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2022. "Retaliatory Tariffs Reduced U.S. States' Exports of Agricultural Commodities." Amber Waves. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2022/march/retaliatory-tariffs-reduced-u-s-states-exports-of-agricultural-commodities.
Post 9: Blog #9: Today trade talks between the U.S. and China are underway!
Hello Readers!
Since my last blog, effective today, high level talks between the U.S. and China began today in Geneva, Switzerland, with Vice Premier He Lifeng, leading the talks for the Chinese, while U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, will be America's chief presenter. Since the U.S. placed a minimum 145% tariff on most Chinese imports and China has responded with a 125% tariff on most U.S. imports, trade between the two sides has fallen precipitously. In fact, this week in Seattle, Washington, a major import port for Chinese goods, there have been days this week, where there have been no vessels whatsoever to unload at that port, an extremely unusual event.
Yesterday, President Trump floated the possibility of slashing tariffs of Chinese goods to 80%, while demanding China "open up its market to the U.S.". In the meantime, even though there are serious trade talks going on, China is busy cancelling orders with U.S. vendors for a variety of products and has begun the process of sourcing many products elsewhere, which would normally be coming from the U.S.
The combination of fewer goods arriving in the U.S. and increased cost of imports do arrive already started pushing up prices for Americans. To say that Americans depend on a wide range of Chinese goods understates how pervasive these Chinese goods have become in daily American life. According to the National Retail Federation, imports into the U.S., during the second half of 2025, are expected to fall by at least 20%, year over year.
The decline from China will be even more pronounced, with investment bank, J.P. Morgan, expecting the 75% to 80% drop in Chinese imports.
Citations:
Julianna Liu and Catherine Nicholls. 2025. "Title of Article." CNN, May 10. https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/10/business/china-us-trade-talks-geneva-hnk-intl.
(United States Department of Agriculture. "USDA to Gather Final 2020 Crop Production and Grain Stocks Data." National Agricultural Statistics Service, January 22, 2021. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/archive/2021/01-22-2021.php)
United States International Trade Commission (USITC). 2022. The Economic Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture. Washington, DC: USITC. https://www.usitc.gov/publications/
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2022. Retaliatory Tariffs and U.S. Agriculture: Overview and Analysis. Washington, DC: Library of Congress. https://crsreports.congress.gov/
Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). 2023. 2023 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers. Washington, DC: Executive Office of the President. https://ustr.gov/.
Smith, John, and Rebecca Turner. 2021. "The Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Farm Exports: Analyzing Small Farm Vulnerabilities." Journal of Agricultural Economics 72 (4): 215-232. https://doi.org/10.1111/jae.12345.
National Farmers Union (NFU). 2023. Policy & Advocacy Report: Tariffs and Small Farms. Washington, DC: NFU. https://nfu.org/.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). 2023. Farm Economy Outlook: The Effects of Tariffs on American Agriculture. Washington, DC: AFBF. https://www.fb.org/.
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). 2023. Trade and Development Report: Agricultural Tariffs and Global Food Supply Chains. Geneva: UNCTAD. https://unctad.org/.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2021. "The Economic Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture." Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=102979.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2023. "U.S. Agricultural Trade." Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/international-markets-us-trade/us-agricultural-trade/.
Tax Foundation. 2021. "How Tariffs and the Trade War Hurt U.S. Agriculture." https://taxfoundation.org/blog/tariffs-trade-war-agriculture-food-prices/.
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2018. "Profiles and Effects of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Exports." https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/r/r45448.
United States Department of State. n.d. "Agricultural Trade." https://www.state.gov/agricultural-trade/.
Wharton Global Youth Program. 2018. "How the Trade War with China Is Hurting U.S. Farmers." https://globalyouth.wharton.upenn.edu/articles/world-economy/how-the-trade-war-with-china-is-hurting-u-s-farmers/.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). 2024. "Agricultural Exports Benefit from the Farm Bill." Market Intel. https://www.fb.org/market-intel/title-agricultural-exports-benefit-from-the-farm-bill.
Choices Magazine. 2019. "Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on Farm Income and Government Programs." https://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/the-economic-impacts-of-trade-retaliation-on-us-agriculture-a-one-year-review/impacts-of-retaliatory-tariffs-on-farm-income-and-government-programs.
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2021. "U.S. Agricultural Export Programs: Background and Issues." https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46760.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2022. "Retaliatory Tariffs Reduced U.S. States' Exports of Agricultural Commodities." Amber Waves. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2022/march/retaliatory-tariffs-reduced-u-s-states-exports-of-agricultural-commodities.
Post 10: Blog #10: My attempt at Linear Regression Analysis
Hi Readers!
I was not sure of how I might conduct a Linear Regression Analysis, but I was able to figure out how to utilize it, to in part, support or reject my hypothesis. Being very interested in seeing how U.S.-China tariffs might definitively impact U.S. shipments of agricultural products, specifically soybeans, I developed a linear regression analysis to test my hypothesis. This was difficult, in great part, due to the fact that I realized there would be a lag effect on shipment results in tariff-impacted U.S.-China trade goods.
Nevertheless, I wanted to share some of my findings with you, because, even considering time lags, they seem to have some significance, which was exciting for me and to some extent, beyond my expectations. I am pleased to share the below results with you and give you my thoughts about them.
My data comments follow the results.
Data Comments: Export shipments of U.S. soybeans in 2025 began to fall relative to 2024 shipments, even prior to Trump’s announcement of the imposition of tariffs. Our data indicates a growing decline of shipments of US Soybeans to China. China is a buyer of more than 50% of U.S. Soybean exports. While our data only shows an R^2 = 0.41 which is merely moderate in terms of explaining the variability of U.S. export shipments in terms of tariff percentages, our P-value test is nevertheless significant and it is believed that more significant and supportive data will present itself in the weeks and months to follow.
Citations:
1. Bown, Chad P. 2025. "US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart." Peterson Institute for International Economics. April 12, 2025. https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2019/us-china-trade-war-tariffs-date-chart.
2.U.S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service. 2025. "Export Sales Query System." Accessed May 10, 2025. https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrq.aspx.
3. CNN. 2025. "China-US Trade Talks Begin in Geneva." May 10, 2025. https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/10/business/china-us-trade-talks-geneva-hnk-intl.
Post 11: Blog #11: Takeaways From My Project!
Hi Readers!
We’ve arrived here to my last blog! Thanks so much, if you were able to attend my presentation. I wanted to provide a brief recap of my project and highlight some key takeaways.
Some things that worked well in my project include interesting research with plentiful articles and historically relevant information. For example, China has been steadily, by policy directive, moving away from the U.S. as a major supplier of agricultural products, moving towards Brazil and Argentina. The recent U.S. tariff declaration only cemented China's recent policy moves away from the U.S. U.S. small and medium-sized farmers will be hurt the most in the coming months and years.
It was difficult to create certainty in this project due to the fact that trade policy in the U.S. is currently in a state of flux, with highly volatile swings in U.S. tariff policy not allowing for conclusive statements or forecasts to be made.
The significance of this research from my standpoint was uncovering the enormity of small farmers in the U.S (almost two million) providing food products to the American public and realizing that up to to 50% of some of these products, i.e. soybeans, may be going for export! One of the principal significances of my project was uncovering the enormity of small farmers (more than 1.5 million) in the U.S., who are providing food stuff to the American market, and the fact that in certain important agricultural commodities, i.e. soybeans, up to 50% of the entire U.S. production goes for export!
Also, the impact of China trade with the U.S. is significant. In some U.S. import product categories, Chinese imports can comprise up to 80% of all U.S imports! For example, China exported directly to the U.S., in 2024, USD 127.05 billion worth of electrical and electronic equipment, approximately 26% of total imports in that category. This does not take into account Chinese intermediate products, which may be sold to third countries for assemblage into the final product and then shipped to the U.S., as a third country product.
Some further research that should be done for extending my analysis would be to also focus on different sectors: for example, the auto industry is currently in a contentious trade war, especially between Europe and the United States. Today, President Trump threatened the imposition of a 50% tariff on all European goods, effective June 1st, 2025. This might prove to be a very serious situation for Europe’s auto industry, whereas, for example, the U.S., by itself, receives 13% of all of Germany’s Volkswagen production.
Works Cited:
Becker, Amanda. 2025. “Their Small Farms Helped Stock Food Pantries. That Program Is Going Away.” Ohio Capital Journal, May 21, 2025. https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2025/05/21/their-small-farms-helped-stock-food-pantries-that-program-is-going-away/
Tiedje, Bill. 2025. “Iowa Farmer Today.” Iowa Farmer Today, May 2025. https://agupdate.com/iowafarmertoday/news/article_eb4b84b0-e08f-4e4c-86dd-5cfe1e37e84c.html.
Logerot, Raphaelle, and AFP. 2025. “Wolfsburg on Edge: Volkswagen's Hometown Workers Fear 'Idiocy' of America's Trade War.” Fortune, April 10, 2025. https://fortune.com/europe/2025/04/10/wolfsburg-volkswagens-hometown-idiocy-america-trade-war/.
Smith, John. 2025. “Trump Threatens 50% Tariff on EU Products as Trade Talks Stall.” NBC News, May 23, 2025. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/trump-eu-50-percent-tariff-talks-going-nowhere-rcna208712.
(United States Department of Agriculture. "USDA to Gather Final 2020 Crop Production and Grain Stocks Data." National Agricultural Statistics Service, January 22, 2021. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/archive/2021/01-22-2021.php)
United States International Trade Commission (USITC). 2022. The Economic Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture. Washington, DC: USITC. https://www.usitc.gov/publications/
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2022. Retaliatory Tariffs and U.S. Agriculture: Overview and Analysis. Washington, DC: Library of Congress. https://crsreports.congress.gov/
Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). 2023. 2023 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers. Washington, DC: Executive Office of the President. https://ustr.gov/.
Smith, John, and Rebecca Turner. 2021. "The Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Farm Exports: Analyzing Small Farm Vulnerabilities." Journal of Agricultural Economics 72 (4): 215-232. https://doi.org/10.1111/jae.12345.
National Farmers Union (NFU). 2023. Policy & Advocacy Report: Tariffs and Small Farms. Washington, DC: NFU. https://nfu.org/.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). 2023. Farm Economy Outlook: The Effects of Tariffs on American Agriculture. Washington, DC: AFBF. https://www.fb.org/.
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). 2023. Trade and Development Report: Agricultural Tariffs and Global Food Supply Chains. Geneva: UNCTAD. https://unctad.org/.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2021. "The Economic Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture." Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=102979.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2023. "U.S. Agricultural Trade." Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/international-markets-us-trade/us-agricultural-trade/.
Tax Foundation. 2021. "How Tariffs and the Trade War Hurt U.S. Agriculture." https://taxfoundation.org/blog/tariffs-trade-war-agriculture-food-prices/.
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2018. "Profiles and Effects of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Exports." https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/r/r45448.
United States Department of State. n.d. "Agricultural Trade." https://www.state.gov/agricultural-trade/.
Wharton Global Youth Program. 2018. "How the Trade War with China Is Hurting U.S. Farmers." https://globalyouth.wharton.upenn.edu/articles/world-economy/how-the-trade-war-with-china-is-hurting-u-s-farmers/.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). 2024. "Agricultural Exports Benefit from the Farm Bill." Market Intel. https://www.fb.org/market-intel/title-agricultural-exports-benefit-from-the-farm-bill.
Choices Magazine. 2019. "Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on Farm Income and Government Programs." https://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/the-economic-impacts-of-trade-retaliation-on-us-agriculture-a-one-year-review/impacts-of-retaliatory-tariffs-on-farm-income-and-government-programs.
Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2021. "U.S. Agricultural Export Programs: Background and Issues." https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46760.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2022. "Retaliatory Tariffs Reduced U.S. States' Exports of Agricultural Commodities." Amber Waves. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2022/march/retaliatory-tariffs-reduced-u-s-states-exports-of-agricultural-commodities.