Week 10: Wrapping Up My Research and Planning My Final Deliverable

Welcome back to Week 10 of my Senior Project blog! This week, I entered the final stages of my research as I finalized plans for my deliverable and collected final data, answering questions that arose in the process.

To begin, a discussion with NYU music business faculty and international music and entertainment attorney, Charles Sanders, continued to guide my analysis of Swift’s industry impact. While much of Swift’s current status is

unique, having a level of influence most artists do not possess, there is a line that can be drawn between Swift and other change-makers in the music industry. As Mr. Sanders stated, there has always been someone in a leadership position who brings people into music and the process of music discovery. In the late 1970s, for example, there was a downturn in music, and Michael Jackson’s success was a springboard for the entire industry, coupled with the introduction of the CD. Sanders views Swift as a key driver as well, bringing new demographics (today’s teens and young adults) into music and streaming services (rather than CDs). I found this comparison interesting, especially given a recent New York Times article titled “How Big Is Taylor Swift?” which compares Swift’s success to many of the greats. The article compared Swift’s album sales to Michael Jackson’s (see graph), and, using some estimates of Swift’s R.I.A.A. certifications once updated with more recent stats, the authors did not put Swift’s success too far off from Jackson’s. His most successful 1982 album Thriller, while selling far above anything Swift has released, appears to be where Swift’s 1989 could end up. Especially with the recent release of 1989 (Taylor’s Version), once given a similar 40-year growth period, the stats for the two albums (both released when the artists were 24) might end up being comparable. When considering the difference between the era of physical music Jackson lived in and today’s streaming age, this feat is incredibly impressive for Swift. 

However, what is more interesting specifically for my research topic is, as Mr. Sanders noted, even in an age of streaming (where 1500 streams are equivalent to just 1 album sale and artists make about $0.003 – $0.005 per stream) and universally accessible music, Swift is still able to uniquely harness popularity and “mount tours that draw hundreds of thousands of people at very high prices.” As Sanders said, “she brings people out to the concert experience,” even when almost anyone can hear her songs at any time on any streaming platform. Mr. Sanders believes that Swift’s true impact lies within her skills as a performer and songwriter, as an inspiration for those who will come after her in the industry as well as her work building new lifelong music fans (who, even outside of Swift, continue to take interest in and fund the industry by streaming other artists, going to other shows, etc.)

A conversation with a senior strategist at a major label reinforced the importance of Swift’s fan connection which many of my past interviews have similarly highlighted. It is not only about the music anymore. Success lies within the experience and a fan’s relationship with an artist and with other fans. Connection has been crucial to the success of Swift’s Eras Tour and is increasingly important for all artists. Especially with the rise of social media, so much of the industry is invested in connection and authenticity – something that Amit Nerurkar also stated in Week 8. Moreover, it is this connection that urges fans to travel for shows and spend large sums of money on tickets. The Eras Tour’s economic impact would not exist without her deep-rooted fan community. 

Additionally, as I began consolidating my findings into my final deliverable, I revisited some of the quantitative data that I collected in the beginning weeks of my project for the local economies portion of my research question. As I reviewed the data, I could not help but reevaluate its accuracy given the conversation with a contact at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York last week who stated that some numbers may be exaggerated for media purposes. Yet, it is nonetheless true that all large entertainment events do have an impact. As Amit Nerurkar mentioned, cities like Austin, Texas were deeply hurt by the pandemic due to the shutting down of their usual Austin City Limits music festival (ACL) and South by Southwest which stimulate the local economy annually. According to KXAN-TV, a local television station in Austin affiliated with NBC, “the 2022 ACL Music Festival brought in nearly $448 million for the Austin economy” and “more than $3 billion has been generated since ACL began tracking the festival’s economic impact in 2006.” Due to how recent the Eras Tour is, it is difficult to test the validity of available data. However, significant research has been conducted for other festivals and live events such as ACL over extended periods that prove entertainment events are indeed profitable for cities. 

Yet even with short-term boosts in local economies, Swift’s impact truly lies ahead. She is teaching artists, music industry professionals, economists, and lawmakers that music and live experiences are good for the economy – a valid strategy to generate revenue. In an interview with CNBC, Live Nation CEO Michael Rapin stated that the company believes they are witnessing “a cultural behavioral change with consumers.” Events like the Eras Tour are becoming central to an increasingly experiential economy. Nonetheless, others are more skeptical. USC Music Industry Professor Kevin Lyman stated that he expects there to be “a great adjustment coming forward,” stating that the current spending on live experiences is not sustainable without pent-up COVID-19 demand. 

It is impossible to anticipate what will come next. In an industry so volatile, where one-hit-wonders come and go and songs “blow up” on TikTok each month, no one can foresee what the future of touring looks like. However, as Alan Krueger explains in Rockonomics, touring is currently how artists make their money, and Swift sets a gold standard for the success that all touring artists aim for.