Week 4: More Paper Work

          Week 4 and it’s time to again discuss the in depth part of my introduction of my paper. As my research and data collecting continues, it is important to examine the history of rising ocean levels specifically in the bay area. My paper opens up with focus on the new laws, a brief summary of climate change in the world, and this week’s focus on direct change in the bay area. 

         This week will be examining a few articles of how climate change will impact us in places like San Francisco and also where we live in Fremont. Currently, the latest report on rising sea levels in California by the California Ocean Protection Council describes the threat on coastal communities, such as those in the Bay Area. Projections show a trend of increasing sea levels, with statewide averages expecting to rise by 0.8 feet by 2050 and potentially reaching up to 6.6 feet by the end of the century. Tectonic activity in Humboldt Bay is exacerbating the situation as projections indicate a rise of 1.2 feet by 2050. The surges in ocean levels threaten residences but also critical infrastructure, such as wastewater treatment plants and sections of Highway 101, which connects the cities Eureka and Arcata. 70% of California’s population already resides near the coast, which heightens the vulnerability of coastal communities.

Projected California sea level rise under scenarios of differing severity

Rise in feet compared to 2020

          I believe this chart is a good way to visualize the impacts, and I have taken it from an article I am analyzing. The chart describes the various scenarios and drastic impacts depending on their severity.  In the low scenario, sea level rise is projected to be 0.2 feet by 2030, 0.5 feet by 2050, gradually increasing over time. In the intermediate scenario, sea level rise is more pronounced, reaching 0.4 feet by 2030, 0.8 feet by 2050, and increasing further in subsequent years. In the high scenario, sea level rise is the most severe, with projections showing the fastest rate of increase.

          In the Bay Area, cities like San Francisco and Fremont are confronting the situation of rising sea levels but the situation still seems dire. San Francisco is projected to experience a sea level rise of 0.8 feet by 2050, already mirroring the statewide average. Fremont has its own challenges with projections indicating a rise of six inches by 2030, 11 inches by 2050, and 36 inches by 2100, all being relative to the levels in the year 2000. At the risk of impacting critical infrastructure, disruption of transportation networks, and heightened risk of flooding events all increase, particularly in lower areas like the Baylands and southern Warm Springs area, Alameda County will be impacted greatly and must be more aware. These forecasts do not even take into consideration the effect of storms, specifically a 50-year storm event, “a flood that has a 2% chance (1 out of 50) of occurring in any given year.” This event coupled with rising sea levels by 2050 could cause water levels to surge to 51 inches and increase risk of flooding. 

          According to an interactive map by the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission’s Adapting to Rising Tides Program, the Baylands and south Warm Springs area are the most at-risk zones for flooding. Essential components of our cities, such as the Union Pacific railway, 32 structures ,48 storm drains, and power lines would be left vulnerable to inundation. These threats do not just stop at physical structure but contain socioeconomic impacts which would resonate throughout our community. I examined a report from Adapting to Rising Tides which predicts that over the next 40 to 100 years, Fremont may face the loss and relocation of nearly 104,000 existing jobs with 85,000 potential new jobs that may not ever be brought to light. Approximately 13,000 existing housing units will become uninhabitable with 70,000 never being brought to fruition. Residents will also suffer with numbers of more than 28,000 having to deal with flooding of homes and neighborhoods. 

           Along with examining these articles, I will be taking into account the numbers and levels to show the result of our specific area of landmass and water in the Candlestick recreation park to highlight visually how it may turn out. I believe by next week I may be able to generate a short animation in Unreal Engine to show the impact from these numbers. Until next time and thank you for reading my blog on the direct consequences of rising sea levels on my and perhaps your home.