Michael H. 2023 | BASIS Independent Silicon Valley
- Project Title: Scorecard to the Stock Market: A Study on Market Behavior and Financial Performance
- Basis Independent Advisor: Jon Noble
Argentina wins their 3rd straight world cup, and Messi solidifies himself as the greatest of all time. Maybe behind Maradona. Fans spilled onto Argentinian highways and streets. Millions celebrated and positive public sentiment was higher than ever before. The Argentinian stock exchange flew. Does this always happen? Does a World Cup win always create a stock market frenzy for the winner? What about the loser? The purpose of my research project is to investigate the relationship between fluctuations in investor sentiment and the stock market. The study is motivated by findings that established a link between sports outcomes and the mood of individuals. As such, international soccer results are employed as the primary indicator of investor sentiment in this analysis. Using the last 9 World Cup tournaments, this paper will look for a correlation between World Cup wins and positive stock market returns, and losses with negative returns. Stock market returns will be collected through the country’s local stock index, and finding trends in positive or negative market fluctuations will confirm the correlation's significance. Why does anybody care? I am looking to add to the growing field of sports research and persuade others to do similar research on other sports. In America, we have 32 NBA teams. Do their playoff wins have an effect on their company sponsors? What about NHL? MLB? Olympics even. There are so many avenues of research that have yet to be explored, and I hope my research sparks interest in others towards these research areas.