Week 3: Looking at Unemployment

Hi, and welcome back to my blog. This week, I’ll be focusing on what I gathered surrounding immigration policies and how they affected the economic profitability of Monterey County agriculture. 

To understand the effect of these policies, I looked at the impacts on the workforce. However, there was a struggle in finding data that I could analyze. The data I found fell into two categories: it was generic, or it wasn’t relevant to the time frame. Between these two options, I thought focusing on the general data and comparing it to other specific factors would be the better choice. 

With that in mind, here’s what I found. Within his first 100 days, the Trump administration enacted around 181 executive orders from January 20, 2025, to April 29, 2025. I decided to use unemployment in Monterey County as a specific measure for the effectiveness of these immigration policies. According to the Monterey County government website, agriculture is the largest economic sector in the region, producing around 16.3% of the country’s total 2023 economic output. Furthermore, the majority of the labor is immigrant labor, being non-citizens, both authorized and unauthorized. 

I looked at Monterey County’s unemployment rates to see how these policies affected Monterey County hiring, keeping in mind that due to the high volume of agricultural production, it would likely be highly reflective of the agricultural sector. Looking at it, we can see that the unemployment, which remained above 10% in the beginning of 2025, from January to March, rapidly began decreasing following policies enacted by the administration. In fact, it hit a low in September of 5.4%. While a decrease in unemployment sounds nice in theory, it reflects a bigger issue. This indicates that there are fewer workers available to fill these roles. When the unemployment levels decrease, it reflects a growing need for labor, and, as the permits imply, a lack of supply within the US.

You may be asking, how can we tell that there is a lack of supply? As I mentioned last week, the H-2A permit requires two requirements, one of which is to prove there are insufficient workers in the US capable of filling these jobs. Monterey County currently holds the largest amount of H-2A permits in California, with 58.05% of the top H-2A permits given out being acquired from companies in Monterey County. This indicates that the area has sufficiently proven the first condition of the H-2A, and demonstrates that there is insufficient labor force within the US to maintain economic profitability. 

Looking at the economic instability that is reflected in the data, we can see that Monterey County’s agriculture sector is heavily dependent on immigrant labor, a source dwindling as these policies continue to restrict and instill fear into these communities. As I continue into the next week, I am also looking to find new sources of data and find more specific sources for a clearer analysis, which I hope to be able to find this following week. 

That’s all for now! See you next time. 

Sources: 

Bush-Joseph, K., & Chishti, M. (2025, April 17). In First 100 Days, Trump 2.0 Has Dramatically Reshaped the U.S. Immigration System, but Is Not Meeting Mass Deportation Aims. Migrationpolicy.org. https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/trump-2-immigration-first-100-days

Monterey County Agriculture Drives Local Economy with Over $11 Billion Impact, New Report Shows | News & Information | County of Monterey, CA. (2025). Countyofmonterey.gov. https://www.countyofmonterey.gov/Home/Components/News/News/11665/1336?widgetId=1472

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Rate in Monterey County, CA [CAMONT2URN], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CAMONT2URN, March 17, 2026.