Blog #10: My attempt at Linear Regression Analysis

Hi Readers!

I was not sure of how I might conduct a Linear Regression Analysis, but I was able to figure out how to utilize it, to in part, support or reject my hypothesis. Being very interested in seeing how U.S.-China tariffs might definitively impact U.S. shipments of agricultural products, specifically soybeans, I developed a linear regression analysis to test my hypothesis. This was difficult, in great part, due to the fact that I realized there would be a lag effect on shipment results in tariff-impacted U.S.-China trade goods.

Nevertheless, I wanted to share some of my findings with you, because, even considering time lags, they seem to have some significance, which was exciting for me and to some extent, beyond my expectations. I am pleased to share the below results with you and give you my thoughts about them.

My data comments follow the results.

Data Comments: Export shipments of U.S. soybeans in 2025 began to fall relative to 2024 shipments, even prior to Trump’s announcement of the imposition of tariffs. Our data indicates a growing decline of shipments of US Soybeans to China. China is a buyer of more than 50% of U.S. Soybean exports. While our data only shows an R^2 = 0.41 which is merely moderate in terms of explaining the variability of U.S. export shipments in terms of tariff percentages, our P-value test is nevertheless significant and it is believed that more significant and supportive data will present itself in the weeks and months to follow.

Citations:

1. Bown, Chad P. 2025. “US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart.” Peterson Institute for International Economics. April 12, 2025. https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2019/us-china-trade-war-tariffs-date-chart.

2.U.S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service. 2025. “Export Sales Query System.” Accessed May 10, 2025. https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrq.aspx.

3. CNN. 2025. “China-US Trade Talks Begin in Geneva.” May 10, 2025. https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/10/business/china-us-trade-talks-geneva-hnk-intl.