Blog #9: Today trade talks between the U.S. and China are underway!

Hello Readers!

Since my last blog, effective today, high level talks between the U.S. and China began today in Geneva, Switzerland, with Vice Premier He Lifeng, leading the talks for the Chinese, while U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, will be America’s chief presenter. Since the U.S. placed a minimum 145% tariff on most Chinese imports and China has responded with a 125% tariff on most U.S. imports, trade between the two sides has fallen precipitously. In fact, this week in Seattle, Washington, a major import port for Chinese goods, there have been days this week, where there have been no vessels whatsoever to unload at that port, an extremely unusual event.

Yesterday, President Trump floated the possibility of slashing tariffs of Chinese goods to 80%, while demanding China “open up its market to the U.S.”. In the meantime, even though there are serious trade talks going on, China is busy cancelling orders with U.S. vendors for a variety of products and has begun the process of sourcing many products elsewhere, which would normally be coming from the U.S.

The combination of fewer goods arriving in the U.S. and increased cost of imports do arrive already started pushing up prices for Americans. To say that Americans depend on a wide range of Chinese goods understates how pervasive these Chinese goods have become in daily American life. According to the National Retail Federation, imports into the U.S., during the second half of 2025, are expected to fall by at least 20%, year over year.

The decline from China will be even more pronounced, with investment bank, J.P. Morgan, expecting the 75% to 80% drop in Chinese imports.

Citations:

1. Julianna Liu and Catherine Nicholls. 2025. “Title of Article.” CNN, May 10. https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/10/business/china-us-trade-talks-geneva-hnk-intl.
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3. United States International Trade Commission (USITC). 2022. The Economic Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture. Washington, DC: USITC. https://www.usitc.gov/publications/
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12. Tax Foundation. 2021. “How Tariffs and the Trade War Hurt U.S. Agriculture.” https://taxfoundation.org/blog/tariffs-trade-war-agriculture-food-prices/.
13. Congressional Research Service (CRS). 2018. “Profiles and Effects of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Exports.” https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/r/r45448.
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15. Wharton Global Youth Program. 2018. “How the Trade War with China Is Hurting U.S. Farmers.” https://globalyouth.wharton.upenn.edu/articles/world-economy/how-the-trade-war-with-china-is-hurting-u-s-farmers/.
16. American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). 2024. “Agricultural Exports Benefit from the Farm Bill.” Market Intel. https://www.fb.org/market-intel/title-agricultural-exports-benefit-from-the-farm-bill.
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