
Sachit P. 2025 | BASIS Independent Fremont
- Project Title: Data-Driven Investigation of the Relationships Between Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers in Northern Europe
- BASIS Independent Advisor: Ms. Covert
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for significant impacts across the subtropical regions, subjecting affected areas to heavy rains and strong winds. Over 30-50% of the total annual precipitation totals for Northern California, for example, are the result of atmospheric rivers. Atmospheric rivers that impact Europe, however, are a bit less studied. These atmospheric rivers originate in the Atlantic Ocean and affect the western coast of Europe, including the Iberian Peninsula, the British Isles, Norway, and France. Not only do Atlantic atmospheric rivers affect land, they also affect key transatlantic shipping routes. A noticeable portion of atmospheric rivers in the Atlantic are the result of active tropical cyclones (TCs), also known as hurricanes. Using datasets mostly available to the public, this project will form an understanding of the circumstances under which atmospheric river formation is linked to the presence of a tropical cyclone. I will conduct a case-by-case study of historical events determined through a visual analysis of satellite and model initialization data. I will analyze each case visually and computationally using Python, focusing on metrics like water vapor flux, relative humidity, and temperature aggregates. I ultimately hope to produce some sort of algorithmic framework to be utilized in existing forecast models to improve the predictability of atmospheric rivers.